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Dennis Gartman: Wheat, Corn Facing Amber Waves of Pain

Wheat futures are up more than 75% over the past year and continued higher Friday on concerns that a perfect storm may be brewing.

Specifically, a drought in Europe and flooding in the U.S. are crushing this year's crop sending supply expectations considerably lower.

”It’s making for bullish conditions in the grain market,” says strategic investor Dennis Gartman.

“The hard red winter wheat crop may not be made at all. Also we may not get corn into the ground in time. And we’re not getting the spring wheat crop planted in time. It’s a perfect storm,” he says.

When asked if concerns about slowing global growth would change his outlook, Gartman effectively says, no.

”Even if we have a slowdown in growth – that would weigh more heavily upon copper, steel and energy. But it won’t weigh upon what what people need every day - which is food. And wheat is still the dominant feed crop of the world.”

Of course that leads to the obvious – what’s the trade?

Gartman tells us companies like Panera may find it harder to make money due to higher input costs. And he says on the other side of the coin, fertilizer companies such as CF Industries should benefit. “You need fertilizer for the corn crop.”

Or if you want to play grains directly he suggests looking at two ETFs, DBA or RJA. “They provide a reasonable facsimile of a long position in all the grains.”



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