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Pro: Next 2 Days Could Set S&P Tone For Next 2 Months

Wednesday, 22 Jun 2011 | 6:37 PM ET

On Wednesday, investors were again attempting to gauge the S&P’s next big move after the 2-day FOMC meeting called the strength of the recovery into question.

”The recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, though somewhat more slowly than previously expected," read the Fed statement.

As expected, the central bank also said it will maintain interest rates at exceptionally low levels for an extended period and it reiterated it was ending its $600 billion bond-buying program at the end of the month. However, it said nothing about future plans to stimulate the economy.

The Fed also reiterated its belief that inflation would subside in the long-term "consistent with the Committee's dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate."

All told, investors found the commentary negative with stocks declining sharply into the close ending a 4-day rally.

Has the momentum in the market turned? What should you be watching?

Instant Insights with the Fast Money traders

Trader Guy Adami thinks the next two days are critical; that they will ‘tell a long tale as to where the market is headed.’

He thinks either the market will break above 1300 or below 1270, a level that had provided support over the past week. “The next two days could tell the tale for the next couple months,” he says.

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A. Gary Shilling agrees with Adami. “I suspect we see further weakness and we may be at the start of a considerable sell-off,” he says.

"If the economy is sloppy I doubt stocks will continue to rise.” He also reminds the desk that the financial woes of Europe will probably keep resurfacing generating further headwinds for stocks.

Trader Tim Seymour thinks the most important take-away from the Fed statement is that QE3 is off the table. In the near term, that will likely send the dollar higher which typically sends the stock market lower.

Trader Joe Terranova thinks the market is entering a period of stabilization. He thinks the Fed’s commitment to keep rates low for an extended period will trump no QE3 and as a result he expects the dollar to go lower. Lately, that’s been good for stocks.

Word on the Street
Stocks continued to decline on Fed chief Ben Bernanke's recovery comments today, with the Fast Money team.

Also, in the days ahead, Terranova expects the market to move on corporate profits. “Profit margins are at historical highs. As long as profit margins don’t contract I’d stay long stocks that benefit from the global growth theme,” he says.

Trader Karen Finerman also expects the market to trend modestly higher, however she expects the next big catalyst will be earnings which kick off in July with Alcoa . Until then she intends to remain long, however she also says ‘buy protection.’

Looking down the road, Dan Greenhaus of BTIG thinks over the next couple months the market will realize that the US is still growing. And when that happens he expects investors will rotate out of defensive sectors and into cyclicals; into year’s end he expects materials, energy and industrials to outperform.

Trader Brian Kelly agrees, especially with Bernanke assessment that over the second half of the year the economy will improve. "Look at what FedEx had to say. And look at the action in the base metals. Very strong. As market indicators that suggests there's real demand," says Kelly.






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Trader disclosure: On June 22, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Tim Seymour owns (AAPL); Tim Seymour owns (BAC); Adami Owns (AGU); Adami Owns (C); Adami Owns (GS); Adami Owns (INTC); Adami Owns (MSFT); Adami Owns (NUE); Adami Owns (BTU); Terranova Owns (VRTS); Terranova Owns (IBM); Terranova Owns (FCX); Terranova Owns (CVI); Terranova Owns (F); Terranova Owns (AAPL); Terranova Owns (CAT); Terranova Owns (BX); Terranova Owns (HPQ); Terranova Owns (MA); Terranova Owns (PEP); Terranova Owns (MCD); Terranova Owns (JWN); Terranova Owns (TM); Terranova Owns (LULU); Terranova Owns (WFM); Terranova Owns (DAR); Terranova Owns (BJ); Terranova Owns (XOM); Terranova Is Short (DELL); Finerman's Firm Is Short (IWM); Finerman's Firm Is Short (MDY); Finerman's Firm Is Short (SPY); Finerman's Firm Is Long S&P 500 Puts; Finerman's Firm Is Long Russell 2000 Puts; Finerman's Firm And Finerman Own (AAPL); Finerman's Firm Owns (BAC) Leap, Finerman owns (BAC); Finerman’s Firm Owns (JPM) Leap and stock, Finerman owns (JPM); Finerman's Firm Owns (HPQ), (HPQ) Puts; Finerman's Firm Owns (IBM); Finerman’s Firm Owns (NM); Nations Owns (SPY); Nations Is Long Volatility In S&P; Stutland is long US treasuries; Stutland is owns (TLT) and short (TLT) calls; Stutland owns (OIH) and short (OIH) calls; Stutland Owns (BAC); Stutland Owns (GS) Bonds; Stutland Owns (GM); Stutland Owns (GOOG) Bull Option Spread; Stutland Owns (MSFT) Bonds; Stutland Owns (GLD); Stutland Owns Silver Bear Option Spread; Stutland Owns (WMT), Is Short (WMT) Calls; Stutland's Firm Is A Market Maker In (WMT) Futures And Options Holding Positions; Stutland's Firm Is A Market Maker Holding Positions In VIX Futures And Options And VXX Stock And Options And S&P 500 futures and options

For Joe Terranova
Terranova is Chief Market Strategist of Virtus Investment Partners, LTD
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (ABAX)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (AMKR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CCG)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CASS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (CSVI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (EXR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (FCFS)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (IGE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (KRC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LDR)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (LHO)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (NRCI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (DBV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLB)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLV)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLP)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLY)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLE)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLF)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLI)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (XLU)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (SUBK)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (WDFC)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of (YDNT)
Virtus Investment Partners Owns More Than 1% Of DOMINO'S PIZZA UK & URL PLC

For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Long the Euro
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (SLV)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (VIX) calls
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (VLO)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (WFC)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (FCX)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (ATW)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (JPM)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Short the U.S. Dollar

For Gary Shilling
*** No Disclosures

For Dan Greenhaus
*** No Disclosures

For Anthony Scaramucci
SkyBridge Capital Is A Fund Of Funds Manager
Funds Held May Or May Not Own The Recommended Securities
Scaramucci Is One Of 8 National Finance Chairs For Mitt Romney Campaign

For Jesse Eisinger
*** No Disclosures

For David Strasser
Janney Montgomery Scott is a market maker in the securities of WMT
Janney Montgomery Scott is a market maker in the securities of BBY




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