The Currency Trade for Greece's Tuesday Vote
Another week, another crucial moment in the euro crisis. Leaving aside the Groundhog Day resemblance, here's how to trade Greece's upcoming austerity vote.
You would think that after a certain number of these crucial events, investors would develop a thick skin about the play by play in the euro crisis. But that certainly wasn't the case on Friday, when the euro broke through $1.42 and "we started seeing liquidity in the currency markets drying up a bit," says Rebecca Patterson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management's chief markets strategist. "It's not a good thing."
Problem is, the drama and confusion are likely to continue, Patterson told CNBC's Scott Wapner. "At the end of the day, you've got 27 EU countries. You've got a central banker for each one, a finance minister for each one, a number of politicians who just like to talk to the press for each one, plus the European Central Bank, plus the EU, plus the European Council...of course you're going to get conflicting signals." Ordinary investors confronted with all this may well decide to just stay away, she says.
Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital, agrees. "We're getting into big time risk-off mode," he says.
Greece's vote Tuesday on new austerity measures won't help matters, Busch says. "If they pass the austerity measures, there are going to be riots in the streets. People are going to be burning things. If they don't pass it, the financial markets are burned. Either way, this is a lose lose, and I just don't like the euro at all."
He recommends selling the euro against the dollar at $1.42 with a stop at $1.4450. When it breaks below $1.4075, he recommends doubling up on the position and putting a stop on the entire trade at $1.4140, with a target price of $1.3750.
You can watch the whole discussion right here.
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