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Market Pro: Key 'Tell' to Determine if Oil Goes Any Lower

As oil prices dipped on Monday, the "Fast Money" desk discussed how to play crude now.

For many investors, the sharp declines in oil combined with the release from the SPR have triggered questions about just how low oil might go.

Rich Ilczyszyn of Lind-Waldock thinks the bottom is probably $85 and suggests using that level as a stop. "If oil bangs against the level, I'm a buyer," he says.

And Ilczyszyn reveals a little trick being used by pros on the floor to gauge the trade.

"If oil trades down to $85 look to see if Brent has broken below its 200-day of about $100," he explains. If not, he thinks $85 (in WTI) is a value. And if so, then the trade may be broken.

If $85 doesn't hold, trader Brian Kelly expects $80 will. "It's a key level used by Saudi Arabia as they plan their budgets," he says. "And it coincides with the technical level mentioned by Rich. I think you can trade oil between $85-$100 probably for the rest of the year."

Ilczyszyn agrees. "If we trade down to $85 this week – I think shorts run for the hills – and I’d add to my position," he says. "However, we've also probably made the highs for the year."


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EURO HIGHER ON GREECE BAILOUT

Analysis of the sharp rise in the euro and whether new austerity measures in Greece will stabilize the currency by Marc Chandler of BBH.

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Trader disclosure: On June 27, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Pete Najarian is long (AAPL); Pete Najarian is long (C); Pete Najarian is long (MS); Pete Najarian is long (MRVL); Pete Najarian is long (CROX); Pete Najarian is long (TCK); Pete Najarian is long (MOS); Pete Najarian is long (AKAM); Pete Najarian is long (GE); Pete Najarian is long (TEVA); Pete Najarian is long (PFE); Pete Najarian is long (MRK); Pete Najarian is long (UNP) calls; Pete Najarian is long (MSFT); Grasso Owns (AKS); Grasso Owns (AMD); Grasso Owns (ASTM); Grasso Owns (BA); Grasso Owns (BAC); Grasso Owns (C); Grasso Owns (D); Grasso Owns (HOV); Grasso Owns (JPM); Grasso Owns (LIT); Grasso Owns (LPX); Grasso Owns (MHY); Grasso Owns (NDAQ); Grasso Owns (PFE); Grasso Owns (PRST); Jon Najarian owns (AAPL) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (AMSC) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (CTXS) call spreads; Jon Najarian owns (UA) call spreads

For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (ABX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (CSCO)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (HES)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (HPQ)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (MU)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (MSFT)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (UAL)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Are Short (AAPL)

For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Long the Euro
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (ANDE)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (JPM)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (WFC)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (TOL)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (MON)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (IPI)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (CLF)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (ESV)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (CAF)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (FCX)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (MCP)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (TCK)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital are long the Hong Kong Dollar
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Short the Yen




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