How to Trade the Euro With a Debt Deal In Sight
A draft is at hand: euro zone leaders have a general plan for dealing with Greece. Here's what to do now.
As Beyonce would say, A-a-a-t last. Euro zone leaders have a draft of a plan to deal with Greece's crushing debt problems - a surprisingly sweeping program that calls for an extension of the maturities of some Greek bonds and new authority for the European bailout fund.
Not surprisingly, the euro is having a very good day, rising to a two-week high against the dollar on the news. So now that it's over $1.43, what do you do?
Why, sell the single currency, says Jens Nordvig, global head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura Securities.
Fine - but against what? The key is to find a cross that lets you trade the risk premium without interference from other factors. In that regard, Nordvig says, euro-dollar "appears to have gotten less responsive to systemic tension in the eurozone."
The Swiss franc still trades on eurozone tensions, Nordvig says, but in the short run, he prefers selling the euro against the Swedish krona.
Investors have been exiting that trade, Nordvig told me, and "position unwinding has led to indiscriminate selling" of the Swedish currency. He thinks investors will settle down now that a deal is close, and "With some degree of stability, the cross should revert to fundamentals, which point to a move below 9, potentially well below."
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