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Indices, Commodities Seen Down; Bund as Safe Haven: Chartist

Friday, 5 Aug 2011 | 11:39 AM ET

After the Dow Jones fell by 500 points on Thursday, European indices also faced a sell-off at Friday's open.

"We have broken this neck line at 1260 and just before that, we have broken the 200 day line, so it's a real danger on the down side," Chris Zwermann, global strategist at Zwermann Financial, told CNBC, on Friday, in reference to the S&P index.

The danger comes in case this shoulder was broken, was the index could go through a pullback down to 1100 before reaching the next target at 1140, Zwermann explained.

"The target is 1100, which is 38.2 percent from the whole upward trend from 2009. So I wouldn't say it's a buy here," Zwermann said, "There's far more danger in there, even on the technics and on the fundamentals anyway."

The S&P is not the only index that opened down on Friday morning, the German DAX went down the same road.

On the Dax, Zwermann said he saw a "support which is at 6.390 at the market close.”

“hey're higher than this yesterday; we see it going down too, close to 6000, which also would be the 38.2% retracement of our all uptrend in 2009," Zwerman added.

While he saw the next support for the DAX at 6000, he didn’t expect the downward trend to end there.

"I think it's not enough," he said. "From there we might see a bounce and later on the 5600, which would mean a 50% on a downward move."

"All in all, it's a very dynamic movement, so I wouldn't really catch the falling knife," he added.

Commodities Not Spared

Apart from indices, commodities also traded down.

"There are many commodities which have turned around," Zwermann said. "There's Brent North Sea oil, we have 120 as the top for last week, and now, we are on this way to this neckline at 105."

Zwermann told CNBC this 105 neckline was to be closely monitored, since, if it were to be broken, "the next target out of this shoulder-head-shoulder is 85."

S&P, DAX, Oil Facing Downward Neckline: Chartist
Since the S&P has broken a neck-line at 1260 right after breaking a 200 day-line, the index is facing a real danger on the down side, Chris Zwermann, global strategist at Zwermann Financial, told CNBC. He also explained why he saw the DAX and the North Sea Brent down.

On the currency/commodities side, the movement was affecting currencies that may be considered as safe-havens, such as the Aussie dollar.

"You have the situation that the dollar, all in all, is recovering," Zwermann said, "Funny enough that it's not doing that much against the euro, but against the Aussie dollar."

German Bund's Safe Haven?

As other European markets are struggling to deal with their sovereign debt and investors growing concerns about Spain and Italy, the German treasury bond appeared to offer some safety.

"It's only a flight into some kind of safety on the bund future," Zwermann told CNBC. "I think it doesn't make sense to have 2.3% interest rates on 10 years for Germany."

After reaching the 133.25 target on Thursday, the Bund broke through it and is now heading up to an all-time high of 134.70, he added.

"There you can see how panicked the market is already," Zwermann said.

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Contact Europe: Economy

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