Cramer Looks At What's Changed In This Market
"You are not going to like this, but the one thing I didn’t want to see was the stock market rally," Cramer said Thursday, as stocks ended higher and the Nasdaq added 3 percent. "To me this increase was as preposterous as yesterday’s decline. Rallies like this bring out all of the bottom callers.
"They create a false level of security. They give people a sense that, 'Ah ha! The worst is over,' when in fact, it could be far from over."
When you have a move like this, Cramer said you have to look at what's different. So what's new?
First, Cisco reported a strong quarter. Its stock soared more than 15 percent after the tech bellwether beat profit and revenue expectations and delivered an encouraging outlook. In addition, Morgan Stanley raised its rating on the firm to "overweight" from "equal weight."
Second, senior government said that a short-selling ban will be imposed in France and Italy after the European market close, sources told CNBC. The news caused covering by the short-sellers and scared the rumor-mongerers into taking a break from repeating 2008 all over again, Cramer said.
Third, weekly jobless claims hit a four-month low, dropping 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000 in the previous week, according to the Labor Department. Economists had forecast claims steady at 400,000, according to a Reuters poll.
Fourth, gold broke, posting a $45 decline. Cramer has said we can't get a rally unless gold goes down. After all, he thinks of it as a currency play against the euro. So as long as the euro has troubles, people will buy up gold. The margin requirement hike helped it go down Thursday, though, and so Cramer thinks it won't be long before prices go back up. So the exchange will just have to keep raising the margin requirement, he said.
Finally, there was massive insider buying. Insiders can't trade. They have to invest, meaning they have to wait at least six months before they sell, so they don't buy unless they have some longer-term visibility into the company's future.
OK. Now that we know what's different, what hasn't changed?
Cramer said the U.S. is still dealing with the lack of political leadership in the wake of the S&P downgrade on U.S. debt, as well as Europe's ongoing debt troubles. Speaking of Europe, Cramer said the damage over there will be considerable. The situation over there is already a smoking mess. It won't be long before it could turn into a blinding fire that consumes 500 points on the Dow, Cramer said.
So what's the bottom line?
"The exaggerated moves and their velocity are signs of sickness, not of health," Cramer said. "I reiterate, use them to reposition and, yes, to raise cash, until we see fundamental longer-term change and not just a couple of better-than-expected quarters, a few thousand fewer jobs lost, some insider buying and a ban on shorting crummy French and Italian banks."
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