How to Trade on the Upcoming ECB Meeting
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This week's European Central Bank meeting will show whether the ECB can save the global economy. Here's how to get ready.
The lousy nonfarm payroll report did one thing for the dollar: it focused investors' attention on Europe, and the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank, for moves that could possibly give the global economy a boost.
"What we're looking at here is for the ECB to intimate very strongly that they're looking at cutting rates," says Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital.
Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management's institutional arm, agrees. "When you look at all the central banks around the developed world," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee, "who's left to give some juice that would support growth?" The ECB is one of the few who has raised rates in the last year, so unlike the Federal Reserve, it still has some obvious cards to play, Patterson says.
Given that possibility, Patterson is looking to trade the euro against the dollar.
"Euro-dollar has been a hard one this year," she says. "You have two ugly currencies here. The dollar's not doing much on its own, but neither is the euro."
As a result, Patterson will be closely watching the language out of the ECB meeting on Thursday. "If they are less dovish than the market hopes, that could lift the euro," she says, and she would sell into any rally.
Noting that you might have to adjust your levels somewhat, given what happens at the meeting, Patterson for now is recommending selling the euro on a rally that would take it to the top of its range, right around $1.45, with a target of $1.41 and stop of $1.47.
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