Is British Pound About to Get a Beating?
With all the action on the Continent, the British pound has been out of the spotlight. It's time for a look — and you might not like it.
The Speculative Sentiment Index published by dailyfx.com suggests the British pound is primed for a fall. Almost 59% of traders are long the British pound against the dollar — a decline from Wednesday but still an indication that expectations for the currency may be significantly higher than they should be.
Meanwhile, analysts at Danske Bank are arguing that British government debt merits a four-notch downgrade. That would mean a decline from AAA to A+.
“Real growth could in our view be substantially lower; the GDP deflator could be somewhat lower and the deficit might be harder to reduce than projected. Rather than peaking in 2013-14 and easing slightly towards 69 percent of GDP in 2015-16, we find that the debt burden in our most likely scenario will rise throughout our forecast horizon and reach 84 percent of GDP in five years’ time,” Danske Chief Analyst John M. Hydeskov wrote in a research note.
You can watch Hydeskov's discussion with CNBC in this video clip.
You know what happened to markets after the U.S. debt rating was cut one notch.
Even if Danske is only one-fourth right, it's time to fasten your seatbelt.
Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.
Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Currency Terms. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.
Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at email@example.com.