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Don’t expect much economic stimulus from President Barack Obama’s jobs plan.

It may even wind up pushing us into a recession because, ironically, it is way too serious and responsible.

The plan is to have the government spend more and tax less, adding around $450 billion into the economy. On paper, this seems like a pretty good idea.

But then you have to write the word “reflexivity” across the top of your paper and start figuring out how people and businesses will react to the new spending.

If people believe that the spending will result in higher taxes, they’ll save more in anticipation of the taxes. They may save more than the government spends, which is why the jobs plan could lead to economic contraction.

This over-saving is not entirely irrational. People are used to government programs costing more than expected. So when told the price tag for a bill is $450 billion, the expect the actual price tag to be well above $500 billion. If they save in anticipation of the higher price tag—while spending doesn’t actually exceed projections—you get a drop in aggregate demand.

The only way a plan like this could work well would be for people to believe that the government will not act “responsibly” and raise taxes to meet its obligations. If they thought that the government would inflate the debt away, they’d spend more now to avoid holding dollars that were about to lose purchasing power. This would actually create a multiplier effect.

But last night in his speech, Obama went out of his way to reassure the American people that his plan was fully “paid for.” Americans hearing that news will likely react by increasing their savings to accommodate higher taxes that will “pay for” the bill.

Although you’ll likely hear that it Republican resistance to spending that prevents stimulus from working, it’s also the Democratic attachment to raising taxes that undermines attempts at economic stimulus.

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