'Most Dangerous Decade Since the 1950s': Strategist
Associate Editor, CNBC
Over the 100 years from 1950 to 2050, this decade will be seen as the "inflection decade" as both the developed and emerging economies make radical changes to adapt to a more dominant Asia, Anil Gupta, professor of strategy at University of Maryland told CNBC Monday.
"I see this as the inflection decade. Developed economies still make up 70 percent of the world's GDP but by 2020 they will account for less than 50 percent," he said. "After 2020 the chronic problems of the developed economies will have much less serious implications for the global economy. By 2025 Asia's GDP will be larger than that of the US and EU combined but the global impact of any turmoil will be less."
Gupta added that significant adjustments in the US and Europe would need to be made to adjust—as well as in the BRIC countries—as the world shifts from reliance on the developed to the emerging economies.
This view was echoed by Philip Poole, global head of macro and investment strategy at HSBC Global Asset Management.
"The world is going to shift increasingly eastwards away from the West and the developed economies and their relative importance will continue to decline," Poole told CNBC.com. "We need to adjust to the view that growth in developed economies will be lower than pre-crisis levels and has Japanese characteristics and that the developing world will dominate."
As sovereign debt woes continue to plague the euro zone, and unemployment and low economic growth remain stubborn problems for the U.S. economy, there appears a genuine case for arguing that we are in a prolonged period of economic difficulty for the developed world.
Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC that key markers, including the long-term low yields on U.S. Treasurys, indicate that the U.S. is in a depression not just a recession.
"The bond market is clear and unequivocal in its message—this is a depression, not just a period of slower growth," he said, adding that a different approach was needed by developed economies to get out of the current mess.
"History shows that what we need are small government, low taxes, and low regulation, but what we have is big government, big taxes, and big regulation, which is not going to work this time," Griffiths said.
