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Dennis Gartman: Expect 'Disorderly' Default by Greece

Tuesday, 20 Sep 2011 | 2:18 PM ET

Expect a "disorderly" default out of debt-stricken Greece, renown currency trader Dennis Gartman said Tuesday.

Can Greece Avoid Default?
Discussing whether Greece can avoid default and how to trade it, with Dennis Gartman,The Gartman Letter, and what the play in copper indicates about the economy.

"We know what the end game is going to be. Greece is eventually going to default. Greece always defaults," Gartman said, adding that it will likely happen on a Sunday in the near future. "Will it be disorderly? You betcha it will."

Until Greece defaults, Gartman thinks the euro will continue to be under pressure. The euro tried to rally early Tuesday, but couldn't hold on. He thinks it could take out $1.35 in the next few days and then move lower.

Trader Brian Kelly, however, takes a different view. He's long the euro.

"The premise behind my euro long is that Europe believes that stability leads to growth, where [U.S.Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke believes that growth leads to stability," Kelly said, founder of Kanundrum Capital. "Two completely opposite views of how to run an economy."

The Fed will likely take some further easing steps at its two-day meeting beginning on Tuesday.

"I think you have to be long euro, particularly going into the FOMC meeting where I think there's a high chance of a surprise coming out of it," Kelly continued.

Instead of a third round of bond purchases , or QE3, many analysts believe the Fed is likely to opt for Operation Twist, in which the Fed would either replace maturing short-term debt with longer-dated bonds or actively sell short-dated assets for longer-dated paper, aiming to push down longer-term interest rates.

Gartman doesn't think there will be any surprise out of the Fed's meeting and he isn't betting on Operation Twist either.

"I'll come down on the notion that Operation Twist is one of the silliest ideas I've ever heard of," Gartman said. "The benefits that accrue from Operation Twist, perhaps a change in the yield curve of 10 or 15 basis points, does nothing and sends an air of desperation."

Gartman thinks the Fed will issue a statement saying it talked about it, but right now stability is the better thing to do.

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On Sep 20, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Terranova is long VRTS; Terranova is long OXY; Terranova is long HOS; Terranova is long OIH; Terranova is long CVI; Terranova is long AXP; Terranova is long EMC; Terranova is long WFM; Terranova is long AMZN; Terranova is long WFC; Terranova is long AAPL; Terranova is long IBM; Cortes is long SO; Cortes is long Treasuries; Cortes is long Gold; Cortes is short EUR; Cortes is short Aussie; Najarian is long AAPL through call spreads; Najarian is long ARMH through call spreads; Najarian is long IBM through call spreads; Najarian is long V through call spreads; Najarian is long LVS through call spreads; Najarian is long WYNN through call spreads; Najarian is long XOM through call spreads; Najarian is long CIGX outright

For Brian Kelly
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are long MCP
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are long Euro
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are long TLT
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are short Aussie dollar
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are short SLV
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are long SPY straddle

For Dennis Gartman
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman own Canadian dollars
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman own Australian dollars
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman own Gold
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman own Soybeans
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short Yen
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short Euro
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short British Pound Sterling
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short S&P 500 Index
Funds managed by Dennis Gartman are short Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Index

For Mark Strawn
Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC makes a market in the securities of MGM Resorts International. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from MGM Resorts International. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking

CNBC.com with wires. Reuters contributed to this report

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