Dennis Gartman: Wait for Gold to Trade $1695, Then Buy
On Thursday investors ran for the exits after a gloomy Fed outlook and weak data from China convinced money managers that risk was best left on the table.
But gold wasn't one of their destinations - the precious metal traded sharply lower, with investors much more concerned about strength in the dollar dragging down the price of gold.
“I’m amused that people call gold a safe haven,” Gartman said. “There is nothing safe about gold.”
But that doesn't mean the trade is over - in fact Gartman thinks it's just begun.
Although for the long-term Gartman is bullish and says the trend remains from the lower left to the upper right - in the near term he expects the path of least resistance is lower.
"We went through a series of stops and could break more of them tomorrow," he says. "I think there's more liquidation to come."
And that begs the question how should you trade gold?
"I wouldn't be surprised to see gold print $1695," says Gartman. "Then you can probably be a buyer."
"I agree at that level gold will be a huge opportunity," says trader Guy Adami. "That's what should end up winning."
"Close to the $1700 level, I'd also start getting in," adds trader Brian Kelly. "But with the sell-off now you've got to be careful."
Gartman agrees if you're a retail investor, this is the time for caution. His advice in this turbulent market?
"Go to the sidelines, get cash, and weather the storm—that is the most important thing to do at this point,” he said.
The market right now isn’t even a place where pros are going to do well, much less amateurs, he added.
And Gartman certainly didn’t think the Federal Reserves’ announcement of Operation Twist was any help. In fact, he called Fed’s latest effort to boost the economy “absolutely ill-advised.”
Gartman said two things stuck out to him in the Fed’s statement. First, they used the term “significant” when describing the risks to the economy, a word they have not used before.
“They are telling you they think that the economy is heading into a recession,” Gartman said. “I think we are already in recession; it will just be a matter of time to get the data to prove it.”
And when using the phrase “dual mandate,” he thinks the Fed telegraphed that interest rates won’t go up until unemployment improves.
The bottom line, he said, is that “the market would have been much better off had they done nothing.”
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Trader disclosure: On Sep 22, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Adami owns (AGU); Adami owns (C); Adami owns (GS); Adami owns (INTC); Adami owns (MSFT); Adami owns (NUE); Adami owns (BTU); Karabell owns (AAPL); Karabell owns (FCX); Karabell owns (JPM); Karabell owns (GOOG)
Funds managed by Brian Kelly are long (TLT)
For Zach Karabell
Rivertwice Capital is short (GLD)
Rivertwice Capital is short (XLF)
Rivertwice Capital is short (SMH)
For Peter Schiff
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