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Your Playbook For a Greek Default

Friday, 7 Oct 2011 | 7:53 PM ET
The Parthenon in Greece
Scott E. Barbour | Getty Images
The Parthenon in Greece

Greece faces a key debt-payment deadline on October 14. Here's how to get ready.

The European debt crisis is lumbering on, but the coming week could get really interesting. Greece has a 2 billion euro debt issue maturing, and plenty of experts think the country will have to default.

"This has to happen. I believe this is coming to a head," says Andrew Busch, a global currency and public policy strategist for BMO Capital. Discussions of bank recapitalizations are taking place now because policymakers "are preparing for the Greek default," he toldCNBC's Melissa lee.

Not surprisingly, Busch recommends selling the euro before Friday - into the close on Thursday, to be precise. He wants to sell around the current spot level of 1.3485 with a stop of 1.3550 and a target of 13150.

Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Institutional, likes the trade - but not for the same reasons as Busch. She believes there is virtually no chance Greece will default next week because policymakers will want the banks holding Greek debt to be better prepared, and they will do everything they can to keep Greece afloat.

Still, she sees any number of reasons the euro could go lower, including another general decline in risk appetite. "I have been a big fan of selling the euro on rallies for the last several months," she says.

Default or no default, it looks like you've got a plan for a euro trade.

Money Match Up
As Europe's debt crisis grows, Fitch cuts Spain's credit rating and maintains a negative outlook. And the currency trade in light of Greece's debt crisis, with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Money in Motion traders. With Sean Egan, Egan-Jones Ratings Co.

You can watch the discussion on the videotape above.

CURRENCY FUTURES

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Currency Terms. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at moneyinmotion@cnbc.com.

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