Did ‘Merkozy’ Alter Fundamentals or Just Squeeze Shorts?
Optimism that Europe had finally turned the corner in its financial crisis triggered an explosion in the US stock market Monday with the Dow surging by triple digits.
Investors around the world breathed a collective sign of relief after German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised to unveil a comprehensive new package to ease the euro zone's debt crisis, though details won’t be made public until the G20 summit which is scheduled to begin Nov 3rd.
Meanwhile, the Street was also relieved to learn regulators were moving forward with plans to nationalize Franco-Belgian bank Dexia – developments were considered an indication that governments would step in and keep large lenders from going under.
"The market gave Merkel and Sarkozy the benefit of the doubt,” says Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in a Reuters interview. The Dexia rescue shows European governments "can act quickly and decisively," if and when needed. The market is willing to wait for the details.
Although a portion of the stock market gains stemmed from positive sentiment, another part was due to renewed strength in the euro which rallied sharply against the US dollar.
(Lately a weak dollar has been good for stocks – buoying commodity related sectors such as Materials and Industrials . Both sectors advanced significantly, Monday.)
But the euro gains may be deceiving, Axel Merk of Merk Investments explains. “For the time being we have a short squeeze." In other words, the promise of new aid is causing short sellers to cover their positions.
But the moves may be little more than that. In fact trader Stephen Weiss would bet on it. ”The euro could rise to 140,” Weiss admits but ultimately it’s a troubled currency.
Weiss suggests stepping back and looking at the big picture - he doesn't think you'll like what you see.
He thinks Europe will have to inject massive amounts of liquidity to stem the financial crisis – “just like the US had to do in 2008,” he says. “And guess what? When we did it here a few years ago it drove our currency lower. When they do it in Europe, it will drive the euro down – and the dollar higher.”
If you have a short -term time horizon and you're looking for a trade, Brian Kelly has a thought for you. He thinks the trade is long euro until the details are made public at the G20 meeting currently scheduled to begin Nov 3rd. “The market is so short, there should be covering until the details are released.”
What do you think? We want to know!
SPRINT MAKES MAD DASH LOWER
Digging down into the market, Sprint shares seemed as if they were making a mad dash lower Monday after analysts reduced ratings on the stock citing concerns that rising spending will hurt liquidity.
What’s the trade?
Rather than play Sprint, trader Stephen Weiss suggests another name. "In the space I like NII Holdings – that’s where I’d put my money."
BATTLE ON THE STREET OVER NETFLIX
Netflix landed on the trader radar after CEO Reed Hastings reversed an unpopular decision to separate his company’s DVD rental business and online video streaming service.
Although Goldman and Janney are positive on Netflix , Michael Pachter of Wedbush is not.
What should you make of the developments?
Find out from Michael Pachter himself. Watch the video now!
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Trader disclosure: On Oct 10, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Weiss is long QCOM; Weiss is long HPQ; Weiss is long EUO; Weiss is long NIHD; Weiss is long COP; Weiss is long KEG; Najarian owns (AAPL); Najarian owns (C); Najarian owns (BX); Najarian owns (MSFT); Najarian owns (MRVL); Najarian owns (MS); Grasso owns AKS; Grasso owns ASTM; Grasso owns BA; Grasso owns BAC; Grasso owns D; Grasso owns LIT; Grasso owns MHY; Grasso owns PFE; Grasso owns PRST; Grasso owns S; Grasso owns XLU
For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own CSCO
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own CUBA
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own FDX
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own GERN
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own HPQ
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own HSPO
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own JPM
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own MET
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own MSFT
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own MU
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own NYX
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own PFE
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own PRST
Stuart Frankel & Co and it’s partners own UAL
For Axel Merk
Merk Investments is long Euro currency
Merk Investments is long Gold
For Michael Pachter
CNBC.com with wires.