Dennis Gartman: Bullish on Wheat
If you’re a commodities trader you’re probably poring over the latest crop report with great interest.
Nearly perfect weather conditions across much of the U.S. seems to be generating a bountiful harvest.
But is this a case of what’s good for Main Street is bad for Wall Street?
Not necessarily, according to esteemed commodities trader Dennis Gartman. In fact, he sees an opportunity to buy.
Both corn and wheat prices slid Wednesday after the report was released. But Gartman thinks after that "modestly bearish" report, the market is simply correcting itself.
That's because the grain market went up “violently” Tuesday on news that Russia may impose a levy on its own exports, which suggests the country’s crops are down. And that rally shouldn't have happened, he said.
However, Gartman thinks we may be looking at the lows of the wheat market. “From here on out, I don’t think one wants to be short of the wheat market, I think one wants to err on the side of being bullish from this point forward.”
He also thinks the lower input prices will help food manufacturers. Cereal makers, for instance, have reduced the size of their boxes and have likely increased prices, yet the cost for their inputs have gone down.
“They are terribly sticky on the downside. When prices decline they don’t cut the end product,” he said. “Profit margins have to expand for (companies like) Kellogg and the rest of them.”
Fast trader Steve Cortes agrees, and has his eye on food manufacturer ConAgra .
But JJ Kinahan is all about fertilizer. He’s long Mosaic and thinks you can play it all the way up to $60.
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Trader disclosure: On Oct 12, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Weiss owns (APA); Weiss owns (EUO); Weiss owns (CSX); Weiss owns (QCOM); Weiss owns (RIMM); Weiss owns (NIHD); Weiss owns (HPQ); Weiss owns (NS); Cortes is long CAG; Cortes is long SO; Cortes is long PEET; Cortes is long Treasury Bonds; Cortes is long WMT; Cortes is short AAPL; Brown owns (AAPL); Brown owns (JPM)
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