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Dennis Gartman: The Commodities Game Has Changed, Advantage Bulls

Appetite for risk increased on Monday as optimism prevailed on Wall Street.

But are gains in commodities a one-day event?

According to strategic investor Dennis Gartman – nope. He tells us the game changed on Monday.

Gartman points to two factors.

1. Caterpillar

Caterpillar far exceeded analyst expectations Monday, reporting a 44 percent quarterly earnings increase and record revenue.

Not only were results bullish but the CEO did not signal caution about the next quarter.

“Although there is a good deal of economic and political uncertainty in the world, we are not seeing it much in our business at this point,” said Chief Executive Officer Doug Oberhelman in the statement.

Looking at the numbers, Caterpillar said full-year profit will be $6.75 a share and sales will be at the top end of a previously forecast range of $56 billion to $58 billion.

"That Caterpillar results really were quite extraordinary," Gartman says.

2. China

The latest economic data out of China shows that nation's vast manufacturing sector expanded moderately in October.

”The PMI is the highest since May and it shows expansion when the past three numbers have shown contraction,” explains Tim Seymour.

"That PMI was an important number," adds Gartman.

These data points suggest that it’s is now much more likely that recession has been averted and the global economy is growing, explains Gartman.

”And if that’s the case, then buy the stuff that hurts when you drop it on your foot!”

Gartman concedes that this is a change. "If you asked me only a month ago, I would have told you the global economy was in danger. But this has changed my opinion completely. When the facts change, I change."





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Trader disclosure: On Oct 24, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Nathan has long Jan. puts BAC; Nathan has long Oct. puts GS; Nathan has long Jan. puts MS; Nathan has long Oct. put butterfly NFLX; Terranova owns IBM; Terranova owns AAPL; Terranova owns AXP; Terranova owns CAT; Terranova owns F; Terranova owns GS; Terranova owns OXY; Terranova owns FCX; Terranova owns LQD; Terranova owns MUB; Seymour is long BAC; Seymour is long INTC; Seymour is long FCX; Brown is long RAX; Nations is long SPY

For Dan Greenhaus
No disclosures

For Michael Pachter
Wedbush does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

I, Michael Pachter, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report.

For Dennis Gartman
Gartman is long crude

For Todd Gordon
Aspen Trading Group is bidding for AUDUSD lower

For Kimberly Greenberger
As of September 30, 2011, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, LinkedIn Corp, Lululemon Athletica Inc., Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, OpenTable Inc., Pandora Media Inc., Shutterfly Inc, Vistaprint N.V., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Ancestry.com Inc., Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Express, Inc., Google, HomeAway, Inc., Kohl's, LinkedIn Corp, Nordstrom, Pandora Media Inc., Skullcandy Inc, Teavana Holdings, Inc.. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Expedia Inc., Express, Inc., Gap Inc, Google, HomeAway, Inc., J.C. Penney Co., Kohl's, Limited Brands Inc, LinkedIn Corp, Macy's Inc., Netflix Inc, Nordstrom, Pandora Media Inc., priceline.com, Saks Inc., Shutterfly Inc, Skullcandy Inc, Target Corp., Teavana Holdings, Inc.. In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, Coach Inc, Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Expedia Inc., Express, Inc., Gap Inc, Google, HomeAway, Inc., Kohl's, LinkedIn Corp, Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, Nordstrom, OpenTable Inc., Pandora Media Inc., priceline.com, Ross Stores Inc., Saks Inc., Skullcandy Inc, Tiffany & Co., Urban Outfitters Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Google, J.C. Penney Co., Kohl's, Macy's Inc., Netflix Inc, Nordstrom, Pandora Media Inc., priceline.com, Saks Inc.. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has provided or is providing investment banking services to, or has an investment banking client relationship with, the following company: Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Blue Nile Inc, Coach Inc, Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Expedia Inc., Express, Inc., Gap Inc, Google, HomeAway, Inc., J.C. Penney Co., Kohl's, Limited Brands Inc, LinkedIn Corp, Macy's Inc., Mercadolibre Inc., Netflix Inc, Nordstrom, OpenTable Inc., Pandora Media Inc., priceline.com, Ross Stores Inc., Saks Inc., Shutterfly Inc, Skullcandy Inc, Target Corp., Teavana Holdings, Inc., Tiffany & Co., Urban Outfitters Inc., Vistaprint N.V., WebMD Health Corp., Yahoo!. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the following company: Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Amazon.com, Ancestry.com Inc., Demand Media, Inc., Digital River Inc, eBay, Express, Inc., Google, Guess, J.C. Penney Co., Kohl's, Macy's Inc., Netflix Inc, Nordstrom, OpenTable Inc., Pandora Media Inc., priceline.com, Saks Inc., TJX Companies Inc.. An employee, director or consultant of Morgan Stanley (not a research analyst or a member of a research analyst's household) is a director of Macy's Inc., Yahoo!. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC makes a market in the securities of Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Aeropostale Inc, Amazon

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