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Top Analyst Mark Mahaney: Netflix is Hold not Sell

On Tuesday, money pros were scratching their heads wondering why Netflix CEO Reed Hastings had declined media appearances, despite a sharp decline in share price.

In fact, Netflix market cap has lost about $12 billion in just 104 days.

And many pros think Hastings should be front and center - talking to shareholders.

”He’s spending a lot of time mending fences privately,” explains Citi analyst Mark Mahaney.

Mahaney, like so many others, has been badly burned by Hastings. Mahaney upgraded the stock a few months back and in a live interview on Fast Money explained his thesis. (Click here to go to Citigroup Upgrades Netflix.)

And on Tuesday Mahaney consented to another interview in which he admitted the momentum was broken. ”Our call was drastically wrong,” he says. “The stock has been a disaster and our call has been a disaster.

Now the questions becomes, how low will it go?

You may be surprised to hear that Mahaney doesn’t think it goes much lower.

“It looks like the market is willing to put a 12 multiple on it, and a little value for other things – I think that will hold the stock here. I think the stock is a hold here and not a sell.”



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Trader disclosure: On Oct 25, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Terranova is long IBM; Terranova is long AAPL; Terranova is long GS; Terranova is long FCX; Kelly is short British pound; Dicker owns CHK; Dicker owns COP; Dicker owns HP

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For Mark Mahaney
The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation and content of this research report are named in bold text in the author block at the front of the product except for those sections where an analyst's name appears in bold alongside content which is attributable to that analyst. Each of these analyst(s) certify, with respect to the section(s) of the report for which they are responsible, that the views expressed therein accurately reflect their personal views about each issuer and security referenced and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to Citigroup Global Markets Inc and its affiliates. No part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by that research analyst in this report.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of eBay Inc, Yahoo! Inc, Netflix Inc. This position reflects information available as of the prior business day.
Within the past 12 months, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has acted as manager or co-manager of an offering of securities of Google Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12 months from eBay Inc, Google Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek, within the next three months, compensation for investment banking services from Yahoo! Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Google Inc, Priceline.Com Inc, Yahoo! Inc in the past 12 months.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investment banking client(s): eBay Inc, Google Inc, Yahoo! Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Google Inc, Priceline.Com Inc, Yahoo! Inc.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Google Inc, Priceline.Com Inc, Yahoo! Inc.
Analysts' compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates ("the Firm"). Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability which includes investment banking revenues.
The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of Amazon.com Inc, eBay Inc, Google Inc, OpenTable, Inc, Priceline.Com Inc, Yahoo! Inc, Netflix Inc.

For Willie Williams
No disclosures

For Doug Harter
I, Douglas Harter, CFA, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.


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