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Will Halloween Spook the Market?

Jack-o-lanterns
Jack-o-lanterns

Historically, U.S. stocks have been positive on Halloween, posting an average gain of 0.25 percent.

Since 2003, the S&P 500 posted a gain in each of the five instances where the market was open during Halloween, while the Dow and NASDAQ have gone up four of the last five times.

The real cheers, however, appear to occur the week after Halloween through the Thanksgiving holiday, where the market has historically trended up.

Here is a look at how the major U.S. indexes perform on Halloween.

Dow Since 1896

Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.11%
  • Up 51% of the time when it gained an average of 0.93%, down 49% of the time when it fell an average -0.721%
  • Biggest gain: 5.82% in 1929
  • Biggest drop: -2.51% in 1930
  • Has increased 4 of the last 5 trading Halloweens (2003, 2005, 2007 and 2008) -Note that Halloween was celebrated on the weekend in 2010, 2009, and 2004

1-Week After Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.6%, Up 62% of the time
  • Has increased 3 of the last 5

1-Month After Halloween

  • Average gain of 1.51%, Up 60% of the time
  • Has declined 3 of the last 5

S&P Since 1928

Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.14%
  • Up 51% of the time when it gained an average of 0.97%, down 46% of the time when it fell an average -0.76%, flat 3% of the time
  • Biggest gain: 5.05% in 1929
  • Biggest drop: -2.93% in 1933
  • Has increased 5 of the last 5 trading Halloweens (2003, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008)

1-Week After Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.56%, Up 71% of the time
  • Has increased 3 of the last 5

1-Month After Halloween

  • Average gain of 1.25%, Up 60% of the time
  • Has increased 3 of the last 5

NASDAQ Composite Since 1971

Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.49%
  • Up 64% of the time when it gained an average of 0.95 %, down 32% of the time when it fell an average of -0.39%, flat 4% of the time
  • Biggest gain: 5.59% in 2000
  • Biggest drop: -1.14% in 1978
  • Has increased 4 of the last 5 trading Halloweens (2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008)

1-Week after Halloween Day

  • Average gain of 0.61%, Up 71% of the time
  • Has increased 3 of the last 5

1-Month after Halloween

  • Average gain of 0.73%, Up 64% of the time
  • Has increased 3 of the last 5

Ideas for By The Numbers? Send them to giovanny.moreano@nbcuni.com

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