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Your Currency Trade If Europe Gets Worse

Friday, 4 Nov 2011 | 8:49 PM ET
Matthias Tunger | Digital Vision | Getty Images

Europe is officially in crisis mode, but the euro is hanging tough. Here's how to prepare if uncertainty seems primed to rise on Monday.

Greece is in crisis, Italian bonds are under fire - but you wouldn't know it from the level of the euro. Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Institutional, wants to be ready in case that changes.

Patterson believes that European officials "are going to do the right thing in the longer term. But there are still a lot of question marks out there between here and the longer term, and I think it could get messy before it gets better," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee.

"I for one am going to be watching headlines this weekend," Patterson says. And in the event that the news turns even more negative, she has a risk-off trade in mind: she would sell the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is cutting interest rates, Patterson points out, and there are concerns about growth there. Also, the Aussie correlates fairly well with the euro, so if conditions worsen in Europe, it should be reflected in the Australian currency. She would sell the Aussie right around 1.0360 with a stop at 1.0500 and a target of 0.9950.

Oh, and don't go too far out on a limb. "Keep your stops close," Patterson cautions. "This is a very, very volatile market we're in."

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