Is Gold a Lot Like Housing in 2008?
If you’re somebody who watches the market, chances are you also keep an eye on the action in gold.
And over the past year the GLD which tracks the precious metal is up about 20%. Over the same period the S&P is down about 3%.
Considering gold has done nothing but march higher for quite some time, money pros are wondering if it’s prudent to compare gold to another tangible asset that also marched higher a few years ago - housing.
The argument is – housing is a tangible asset and one everyone assumed would continually go up, but it fell 30-40%, say the pros.
But trader Steve Grasso says there’s a key difference.
”Housing was subsidized by the Federal government through unusually low interest rates. By contrast gold is not subsidized."
Trader Stephen Weiss sees it different. “Gold is definitely subsidized,” he says. “It’s an inflation hedge,” and the Federal Reserve is trying to generate inflation any way it can.
As you might imagine, Steve Grasso thinks the trade is long gold. "I think there’s a new class of investor moving into gold,” he says.
Grasso argues investors no longer trust the central banks of the world and as a result gold is the only alternative. "This is a psychological change - people have lost confidence in fiat currency. This is in the beginning stages. Gold is going higher," he says dismissing Weiss' argument. "Much higher."
Conversely, Stephen Weiss doesn't think gold can go much higher. “I'm not saying gold is in jeopardy but I don’t know if has a lot more upside. Don't buy at the top."
Trader Jon Najarian says “based on the money flows of institutions I see more upside – I don’t see any signs of profit taking.”
Got something to to say? Send us an e-mail at email@example.com and your comment might be posted on the Rapid Recap. If you'd prefer to make a comment, but not have it published on our Web site, send those e-mails to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Trader disclosure: On Nov 18, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Weiss owns KO; Weiss owns HPQ; Weiss owns RIMM; Weiss owns EUO; Weiss owns WLP; Karabell owns AAPL; Karabell owns MS; Karabell owns IBM; Grasso owns AKS; Grasso owns AMR; Grasso owns ASTM; Grasso owns AVAV; Grasso owns BA; Grasso owns BAC; Grasso owns D; Grasso owns KEG; Grasso owns LIT; Grasso owns MHY; Grasso owns PFE; Grasso owns PRST; Grasso owns S; Grasso owns XLU
For Rebecca Patterson
For Mary Ann Bartels
For Zach Karabell
Rivertwice has short puts AMZN
Rivertwice is short XLF
Rivertwice is short SMH
Rivertwice owns IBM
Rivertwice is short EK
For Efraim Levy
I have no affiliation with any company I am speaking about in this interview.
I have no ownership interest in any company I am speaking about in this interview.
S&P Capital IQ’s other affiliates may provide services to the companies that are the subject of my report.
For David Shove
As to each company covered on this website, the analyst hereby certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about the subject securities or issuers. Each analyst also certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Ltd. are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
CNBC.com with wires.