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Black Friday and Beyond, This Store a Big Holiday Winner, Says Pro

Just days away from Black Friday, Wall Street pros are placing their bets on retail – attempting to game which retailers will come out on top.

And top Citi analyst Deb Wienswing suggest one store should definitely be on your radar.

”Walmart has really come out throwing punches,” she says. "Their lay-away program is already having an impact on toy makers."

Weinswig has crunched the numbers and tells us that Walmart is already stealing early market share by getting aggressive.

In a difficult economy, "Consumers are gravitating toward value oriented retailers, she says. If there’s a theme to play this holiday season it’s value. And of all the value retailers, "Wal-Mart should be a strong winner!”

Trader Stephen Weiss is playing it on the other end of the spectrum. “I like Nordstrom ,” he says. He’s done a little proprietary research and tells us that “top luxury malls are doing great business.”

But that doesn’t mean every high end retailer is a buy.

Weinswig has concerns about Saks. “They’re heavy on higher price point merchandise,” she says. In other words they’re having trouble moving some inventory.

And Abigail Doolittle expresses concerns about Tiffany, Coach and even Apple .

”If it doesn’t hold support at $356 – it could go down to $320,” says Abigail Doolittle, a sign that stores that sell items with a higher price points might be facing headwinds.


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Trader disclosure: On Nov. 21, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Weiss owns NFLX puts; Weiss owns HPQ; Weiss owns RIMM; Weiss owns SDS; Weiss owns UGL; Weiss is short CAT; Weiss is short FLR; Weiss is short JEC; Weiss is short EUR; Weiss is short QCOM; Najarian pending; Grasso owns AKS; Grasso owns AMR; Grasso owns ASTM; Grasso owns AVAV; Grasso owns BA; Grasso owns BAC; Grasso owns D; Grasso owns LIT; Grasso owns MHY; Grasso owns PFE; Grasso owns PRST; Grasso owns S; Grasso owns XLU;

Brian Marshall
No disclosures

Deborah Weinswig
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of JC Penney Co Inc, Saks Inc, SUPERVALU INC. This position reflects information available as of the prior business day.

Within the past 12 months, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has acted as manager or co-manager of an offering of securities of Dollar General Corp., Target Corp, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12 months from Dollar General Corp., Kroger Co, Target Corp, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek, within the next three months, compensation for investment banking services from Kroger Co.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from CVS Caremark Corp, Dollar General Corp., JC Penney Co Inc, Kohl's Corp, Kroger Co, Macys Inc, Safeway Inc, SUPERVALU INC, Target Corp, Walgreen Co, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp in the past 12 months.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investment banking client(s): Dollar General Corp., Kroger Co, Target Corp, Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: CVS Caremark Corp, Dollar General Corp., JC Penney Co Inc, Kohl's Corp, Kroger Co, Macys Inc, Safeway Inc, Saks Inc, SUPERVALU INC, Target Corp, Walgreen Co, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: CVS Caremark Corp, Dollar General Corp., JC Penney Co Inc, Kohl's Corp, Kroger Co, Macys Inc, Safeway Inc, SUPERVALU INC, Target Corp, Walgreen Co, Wal-Mart Stores Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from Dollar General Corp..

Analysts' compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates ("the Firm"). Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability which includes investment banking revenues.

The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of CVS Caremark Corp, Macys Inc, Costco Wholesale Corp.

Matthew Czepliewicz
No disclosures

Kulbinder Garcha
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this (RIMM) research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.

The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this (AAPL) research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.

The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this (HPQ) research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities.



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