1. The U.S. stock market outperforms most other markets, as the U.S. economy improves.
A tough year for prognostication. I'd give myself a B-.
Right on! The Dow Industrials by Thanksgiving, down 0.7 percent for the year, S&P 500 down 5.5 percent, but Japan is down 18 percent, Shanghai 15 percent, France 25 percent and Germany 20 percent.
2. The laggards of 2010 outperform the overall market in 2011.
Partially right. Drug stocks — which were down fractionally in 2010 when theS&P 500was up over 12 percent — have outperformed this year, as have utilities, another 2010 laggard.
But housing never did recover; nor did brokers. Defense stocks also continued to lag.
3. Mexican stocks hit a record high.
Right on, again. The Mexican Bolsa hit a record high in 2011. OK, it was in January, but it's not that far off the high right now.
4. Gold declines but other commodities gain.
Wrong. Gold is off its highs but well above its January level of about $1,375 an ounce. Other commodities are mostly down.
5. The U.S. bond market drops.
Wrong, as well. My only consolation is that this was a universally anticipated trend; everyone was on the short side on this.
6. Municipal bonds come under pressure as a half-dozen local governments default on their general obligation bonds.
Make that three. There were a few high-profile defaults (Harrisburg. Pa., for one) but for the most part the municipal bond market never sold off significantly.