If you’re a trader, Tim Seymour thinks commodities may be oversold in the short-term and the play may be for a technical bounce. But long-term he thinks the path of least resistance is lower.
Largely he expects the dollar to gain significantly and a stronger dollar is bearish for commodities. “Do not be surprised to see the US dollar test the March ’09 highs – I think the dollar index is going to 89 – that makes commodities very challenging,” he says.
Trader Guy Adami is relatively more bullish. He thinks the broad sell-off in commodities was largely triggered by weakness in gold. “At some point I wouldn't be surprised to hear a central bank stepped in and bought gold. That should put a floor under all this.”
Of all the Fast traders Joe Terranova is probably the most bullish but again it's relative. “I would not go short commodities,” he says. “Look at the price action in Freeport, it held up very well.”
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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 14, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Adami owns C; Adami owns GS; Adami owns MSFT; Adami owns INTC; Adami owns AGU; Adami owns NUC; Adami owns BTU; Iuorio has calls VXX; Iuorio is short VXX and net long volum; Stutland is long AAPL and short calls; Stutland is short TLT puts; Stutland is long INTC and short calls; Stutland is long CSCO and short calls; Stutland is long YHOO; Stutland is long IBM and short calls
For Brian Stutland
Stutland Equities is a market maker holding hedged positions in VIX futures and options and VXX stock and options holding hedged positions in SPX futures and options and SPY stock and options
For Urs Dur
Lazard Capital Markets LLC makes a market in GLNG securities.
Lazard Capital Markets LLC makes a market in SSW securities.
Lazard Capital Markets LLC makes a market in FDX securities.
Lazard Capital Markets LLC makes a market in UPS securities
Neither Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group LLC (TAG), nor any of its employees have holdings in Michael Kors.
TAG, currently and during the previous year, has not had Michael Kors as an investment banking client. TAG may seek such a relationship in the future (the next three months). TAG has not received other fees for services from Michael Kors.
TAG, its employees, Dana Telsey and her household have no other conflicts of interest.
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Strazzullo is short gold
Strazzullo is long USO
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