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Use IBM to Confirm Oracle’s Miss as Industry Weakness: Najarian

On Wednesday investors were trying to make more sense of Oracle’s big earnings miss—was it a sign of industry-wide weakness or simply trouble at Oracle?

Shares of the world’s number three software maker have slid substantially since it reported earnings and revenue that missed analysts’ expectations on Tuesday. And its taken technology stocks—and cloud plays in particular—down with it. Names like Salesforce.com, VMWare and Citrix have all seen their stocks dive.

Trader Pete Najarian thinks the way to tell if Oracle's lousy results are a sign of broader industry weakness is to wait for results from IBM -- but only IBM.

"I wouldn't be surprised to hear negatives from Hewlett-Packard or Dell ," he said. Don't let that sway you.

"All we've heard so far from IBM has been about robust growth." In other words, if Big Blue changes its tone, that would indicate broad sector weakness. But without that, Najarian wouldn't alter any trading thesis.

Najarian comments suggest he thinks troubles are Oracle specific.

Zach Karabell says much the same.

(Related: Spooked Investors Overreacted, Oracle Was Oversold: Fast Pro)

“I am always wary of management blaming macro concerns because it’s the easiest punt in the world,” he said. “If everybody else is saying the environment isn’t so difficult then really it’s about [Oracle] and their integration."

Karabell worries that Oracle may be in the same boat as Cisco - that is blaming external factors when the trouble is internal.

What do you think? We want to know!

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Trader disclosure: On Dec. 21, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long PFE; Najarian is long MRK; Najarian is long TEVA; Najarian is long C; Najarian is long MSFT; Najarian is long INTC; Najarian is long YHOO; Najarian is long COP; Najarian is long JAG calls; Najarian is long WFC calls; Najarian is long VLO calls; Gartman is long Canadian dollar vs. the euro; Gartman is long stocks in euro terms; Gartman is short euro vs. the dollar; Gartman is short S&P 500 futures

For Frank Zorrilla
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For Colin Gillis
AMAZON: Investment banking (next 3 months): BGC Financial LP and/or its affiliates, expect to receive, or intend to seek, compensation for investment banking services within the next three months from all of the companies referenced within this report.

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For Ed Maguire
ORACLE (ORCL): Neither analysts nor their household members/associates may have a financial interest in, or be an officer, director or advisory board member of companies covered by the analyst unless disclosed herein. Unless specified otherwise, CLSA/Credit Agricole Securities (USA)'s did not receive investment banking/non-investment banking income from, and did not manage/comanage public offering for, the listed company during the past 12 months, and it does not expect to receive investment banking relationship from the listed company within the coming three months. Unless mentioned otherwise, CLSA/Credit Agricole Securities (USA) does not own discloseable position, and does not make market, in the securities. The analysts included herein hereby certify that the views

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VMW
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