Jobless Claims Drop Again; GDP Growth Slows to 1.8%

U.S. economic growth was slower than previously estimated in the third quarter on a sharp drop in healthcare spending, but stronger business investment and a fall in inventories pointed to a pickup in output in the current period.

CNBC.com

Jobless claims, meanwhile, posted another weekly drop in another sign that the thawing of the labor market is progressing. The fall to 364,000 was the lowest level in more than three years.

Gross domestic product grew at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate on Thursday, down from the previously estimated 2 percent.

Economists had expected growth to be unrevised at 2 percent. Though spending on healthcare dropped by $2.2 billion, spending on durable goods was stronger than previously estimated, indicating household appetite to consume remains healthy.

Healthcare spending had previously been reported to have increased at a $19.7 billion rate. Healthcare spending subtracted about 0.1 percentage point from the GDP change in the final revision, whereas the previous estimate had it adding 0.61 percentage point to growth.

Even as much of the rest of the world is slowing down and a mild recession is forecast in Europe next year, the U.S. economy remains resilient.

The labor market is improving, households continue to spend, home building is picking up and factory output is expanding, putting the economy on course for at least a 3 percent growth pace in the fourth quarter.

That would be the fastest pace in 18 months.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits dropped last week to its lowest level since April 2008, extending a downward trend that shows the job market strengthening.

The Labor Department says new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week by 4,000. It was the third straight weekly decrease. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, dropped to 380,250, the lowest since June 2008. The average has decreased in 11 of the past 13 weeks.

Unemployment applications are a measure of the pace of layoffs. Job cuts have fallen sharply since the recession, though employers have been slow to start hiring. The four-week average is falling near 375,000 — a pace that usually signals that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.

Despite the downward revision, last quarter's growth is still a step-up from the April-June period's 1.3 percent pace. Part of the pick-up in output during the last quarter reflects a reversal of factors that held back growth earlier in the year.

A jump in gasoline prices had weighed on consumer spending earlier in the year, and supply disruptions from Japan's big earthquake and tsunami in March had curbed auto production.

The government revised consumer spending to a 1.7 percent growth rate from 2.3 percent because of adjustments to healthcare services, in particular nonprofit hospitals.

Spending on durable goods was, however, revised up to a 5.7 percent pace from 5.5 percent.

Business inventories dropped $2.0 billion, which sliced off 1.35 percentage points from GDP growth. Inventories had previously been estimated to have declined $8.5 billion.

The drag from inventories was offset by strong business spending, which increased at a 15.7 percent rate, instead of 14.8 percent.

Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a still brisk 3.2 percent rate, revised down from 3.6 percent pace. Final sales increased at a 1.6 percent pace in the second quarter.

The Department also said after-tax corporate profits increased at a 2.7 percent rate, revised down from 3.0 percent. After tax profits increased at a 4.3 rate in the second quarter.

Export growth was stronger than previously estimated, rising at a 4.7 percent rate instead of 4.3 percent. Imports increased at a much faster 1.2 percent rate rather than 0.5 percent.

Trade contributed 0.43 percentage point to GDP growth. Elsewhere, residential construction grew at a 1.3 percent rate instead of 1.6 percent. Government spending fell at an unrevised 0.1 percent.

The GDP report also showed some inflation pressures in the economy. A price index for personal spending rose at an unrevised 2.3 percent rate in the third quarter.

That compared to a 3.3 percent rate in the second quarter. A core inflation measure, which strips out food and energy costs, rose at a 2.1 percent rate rather than 2.0 percent. The measure — closely watched by the Federal Reserve — grew at a 2.3 percent rate in the prior three months.

Jobs Picture Brightens

The economy has shown signs it is gaining steam as the year ends, although the recovery still could be derailed by any big flare up in Europe's debt crisis. The economy also faces risks from the fight in Congress over extending special unemployment benefits and a payroll tax cut.

The prior week's claims data was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 366,000.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 375,000 last week.

The level of unemployment claims has fallen in recent weeks, and analysts say fewer layoffs means employers are probably more likely to hire.

Economists at Goldman Sachs said earlier in the week that weekly claims below 435,000 pointed to net monthly gains in jobs. Their research was based on figures available through October.

In November, the jobless rate dropped to a 2-1/2 year low of 8.6 percent. The Federal Reserve last week acknowledged an improvement in the jobs market, but said unemployment remained high and left the door open for further measures to help the economy.

A Labor Department official said claims were not estimated for any states, and that there was nothing unusual in the data.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends than the headline number, fell 8,000 to 380,250 -- the lowest since June 2008.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 79,000 to 3.546 million in the week ended Dec. 10.

Economists had forecast so-called continuing claims holding steady at 3.6 million.

As of Dec 3, a total of 7.150 million people were claiming unemployment benefits under all programs, down 299,738 from the prior week.

—The Associated Press contributed to this report.