Dennis Gartman: $15 Lower, Start Nibbling at Gold
On Thursday, the gold trade landed on every trader’s radar after the precious metal made a noteworthy push lower.
Not only did gold fall for a fourth consecutive session, it touched its lowest level in nearly six months. At one point gold was down more than 20 percent from its record high of $1,920.30 set on Sept. 6th.
The 20% decline from its 2011 highs put gold on the outskirts of bear market territory.
Does that mean go short ahead of a whoosh lower?
According to Dennis Gartman not at all - he says, it’s nearly time to establish new long positions.
“I’m impressed by the action in gold on Thursday. The precious metal held at what I call the bottom of the box – the 50-62% retracement. And then it closed firmly.”
In other words, Gartman thinks the action suggests that the downward momentum in gold is nearly over.
“Watch the price action going forward,” he says. ”I suspect it will no longer be overtly bearish.”
Gartman tells us his proprietary analysis suggests $1525 holds as a level of strong support. “I don’t think gold takes that out. If gold drops another $15 I’d start nibbling.”
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Trader disclosure: On Dec 29, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Jon Najarian is long (AAPL); Jon Najarian is long (AKS); Jon Najarian is long (RIMM); Jon Najarian is long (ANR); Jon Najarian is long (CNX); Jon Najarian is long (JRCC); Jon Najarian is long (ACI); Jon Najarian is long (PCX); Jon Najarian is long (MOS); Jon Najarian is long (ADBE; Jon Najarian is long (WFT); Jon Najarian is long (PNC); Steve Weiss is long (EUO); Steve Weiss is long (FO); Steve Weiss is long (VZ); Steve Weiss is long (WLP); Steve Weiss is short (FXA; Dan Dicker is long oil futures; Dan Dickeris long (IBM) Stock; Josh Brown is Long (VAL); Josh Brown is Long (HD); Mike Khouw is Long (PHM); Mike Khouw is Short (PHM) Calls
Long: We own an “Asian” short term government bond fund, corn, the C$, the A$, and gold.
Short: We are short S&P 500, FTSE 100, and Euro Stoxx 50 futures to hedge the positions mentioned above. We are also short the Euro, Pound Sterling, and Yen.
The CIBC Gartman Global Allocation Notes portfolio for December is as follows:
Long: 10% Canadian Dollars; 10% Australian Dollars; 20% Gold; 10% Corn
Short: 20% Euro; 10% British Pound Sterling; 5% Japanese Yen; 5% S&P 500 Index; 5% Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 Index; 5% FTSE 100 Index.
For Jim Strugger
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Firm makes market in (AMZN)
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