Strategist: Why Europe Is In a Good Place - Really
Sometimes a crisis can force real reform.
Sure, Greece is playing fast and loose with its bailout deal, euro zone recession indicators abound, and European leaders can't seem to agree on anything. But really, things could be worse, says Frank Trotter, president of EverBank Direct, a division of EverBank.
The U.S. has plenty of fiscal problems of its own, and "political will from both parties" is lacking, Trotter told me. "We're going to talk about it a lot and really do nothing, just like we came out of the debt ceiling talks. Europe in a way is going to able to confront some issues that we won't, simply because they have to."
Trotter believes Greece will not be able to solve its fiscal problems without a bailout of some kind, and the providers of that salvation will force some reforms. "Its like an intervention," he told me. "This is where they are. They have the nephew who’s been out in Colorado spending all his money on drugs and alcohol, and they finally have to bring the kid in and say 'Look, we’ll bail you out this last time, but then we’ll take you out and shoot you.'"
That said, the euro is not on Trotter's list of preferred currencies. He prefers the Norwegian krone, the Australian dollar, the Singapore dollar, and the Canadian dollar - and in fact, he is looking at selling the euro against the loonie as a long-term move. "I would think the Canadian dollar will move up later this year when the Seaway opens. They actually have their house in order," he says. And if the U.S. economy is actually on the mend, that won't hurt either.
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