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Chart Patterns Suggest Pullback at Hand
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Again, the stock market's steady march higher was all traders could talk about on Thursday.
Well over 75 percent of S&P 500 [.SPX
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] stocks are trading above their 26-week moving average, according to Thomson Reuters data. The index has finished higher on six of the last seven trading days.
"We've had a very strong run without a meaningful pullback, and a lot of people would feel like chumps for buying before we see some kind of dip," says Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group in a Reuters interview.
If chart patterns are any indication, the pullback so many investors are looking for is about to come – at least in some areas of the market.
Small Caps
According to Oppenheimer technical analyst Carter Worth things don’t look good for the Russell [IWM
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]. “The current move from the October 4 low takes the market right now at a past top,” says Worth.
And the first time the market challenges a level of such strong resistance it usually pulls back. “Memory kicks in – people who bought poorly become interested sellers – and people who bought well at the bottom want to book gains.”
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TJX
Looking at TJX [TJX
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] as a single stock story, Worth tells us gains are no longer sustainable. “Think of it as too much of a good thing. It’s made a mature intermediate move in the context of a multi-year advance. It’s now 2 standard deviations about 150-day."
In other words, it’s a crowded trade.”
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Gold
Worth really doesn’t like what he sees in the chart of gold [GCCV1
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]. He calls the pattern ‘a kind of topping out.'
"We had a bit of a blow-off top reached last August when gold hit almost $1900 and since then it’s been lackluster. Our work suggests gold is in the throws of coming apart," he says.
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NEW SLIDESHOW: Top Fashion Stocks for 2012
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- Digital Generation Bottomed Out: Finerman
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- Airlines Taking Flight?
- Three Stocks For Thursday
- Next Stop for Oil - $88.55
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Trader disclosure: On Feb. 9, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Terranova is long VRTS; Terranova is long TBT; Terranova is long IBM; Terranova is long EMC; Terranova is long AXP; Terranova is long TRLG; Terranova is long AAPL; Terranova is long SNDK; Terranova is long MCD; Terranova is long OXY; Terranova is long FXE; Terranova is long CNX; Terranova is long SBUX; Terranova is long SU; Terranova is long CSCO; Terranova is long UNG Puts; Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long BAC; Najarian Is long JPM; Najarian is long CSCO; Najarian is long EMC; Najarian is long VMW; Najarian is long AAPL; Najarian is long DMND; Najarian is long CIGX; Najarian is long CBOE; Najarian is long CME; Finerman’s fund is long BAC; Finerman’s fund is long JPM; Finerman’s fund is long IBM; Finerman’s fund is long HPQ; Finerman’s fund is short SPY; Finerman’s fund is short MDY; Finerman’s fund is short IWM
For Mike Khouw
No disclosures
For Gerard Cassidy
No disclosures
For Jerry Howard
No disclosures
For Tim Ramey
No disclosures
For Carter Worth
No disclosures
For Dan Dicker
Dan is long UPL
CNBC.com with wires
Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes
