This is Early Stage of Asset Bubble: Top Strategist
In this new feature, you’ll find insights from top money pros about how to invest for the long term amid the volatility of today’s world.
Guggenheim Partners CIO Scott Minerd, who manages over $125 billion, tells us over the next 2 years or so, he’ll position for an asset bubble, which he expects to inflate into 2014.
Behind his thesis lies a very simple theme.
“The world is being flooded with liquidity,” says Minerd in a live interview on CNBC’s Fast Money. “Money is coming out of central banks around the world.” And he adds that the Federal Reserve is committed to keeping rates low for an extended period of time.
With so much liquidity chasing return, Minerd thinks a wide range of assets are about to make large gains. “Over the next 2-3 years, it’s risk on,” he says. And he’s planning to position as follows:
- Long High-Beta Equities
- Long gold and silver
- Long junk bonds
- Buy art & collectibles
- Short Treasurys
In the near term, that sounds good for your equity portfolio –but if you have a longer time horizon, Minerd also makes some troubling comments.
He believes the current environment is similar to 1998, when the stock market was in the early stages of a bubble. He also believes it’s similar to 2003 when the housing market was in the early stages of a bubble.
And you know how that ended.
Eventually investors will have to pay the piper – and the fee this time around will probably come in the form of serious inflation. However, Minerd thinks you have some time to maneuver before you have to deal with that.
“Milton Friedman told us that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon but it is subject to long and variable lags. And the long variable lag is caused by the velocity of money and how far away we are from potential output. And we are way far away from any capacity constraint."
In other words, Minerd thinks we have years before inflation becomes a problem. In the meantime, enjoy the ride higher.
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Trader disclosure: On Feb. 28, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Gartman is long gold futures; Gartman is short oil futures; McCullough is long (XLU); McCullough is long (GLD); McCullough is short (XLY); Finerman is long (AAPL); Finerman is long (BAC); Finerman is long (JPM); Finerman is long (HPQ); Finerman is long (CMI); Finerman is short (SPY); Finerman is short (MDY); Finerman is short (IWM); Adami is long ( C); Adami is long (GS); Adami is long (INTC); Adami is long (AGU); Adami is long (NUE); Adami is long (MSFT); Adami is long (BTU);
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CNBC.com with wires.