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Gartman Ignores China In Commodities Strategy

Monday, 5 Mar 2012 | 12:48 PM ET

Widely followed commodities trader Dennis Gartman on Monday said he wasn’t concerned about an official slowdown in China.

“I pay very little to what the Chinese have to say,” he said on “Fast Money.” “I think that Premier Wen speaking this morning to the People’s Congress had to low-ball his estimate for GDP going forward so that they can do better than that.”

China Driven Commodity Super-Cycle
Discussing the trade on China's slow growth and what that means for commodity prices, with Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao estimated GDP growth of 7.5 percent for 2012, a figure one economist called “symbolic.”

GDP growth in China is “probably far above 7½,” said the editor of The Gartman Letter. “I wouldn’t change my strategy on commodities one bit.”

India’s move to ban cotton exports came as a surprise — and raises some broader questions beyond cotton.

“I think what you are seeing, it’s playing out over in the grain markets. Look at what corn’s doing. It’s up almost 10 cents right now,” Gartman said. “What’s going on in cotton, in agricultural production across the board in India — that’s the question that it raises with me.”

In oil, Gartman thought both Brent and WTI would trade lower from here.

“If there’s one trade to be done — but you have to be careful with it — the spread between nat gas and crude oil is going to narrow over time,” he said, adding that he was still thinking about putting on the trade but had not yet done so.

“If you made me take a position in crude oil today, I’d probably sell it, but I wouldn’t sell it aggressively,” he said.

Stuart Frankel’s Steve Grasso said the price action in energy commodities will “probably be a blip.”

“The dangerous thing is: You want to be drawn into these nat gas equities, and I think that’s a mistake. It’s too early,” he said. “If I wanted to play nat gas, I’d buy the commodity itself.”

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Trader disclosure: On March 5, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders: Terranova is short GOOG; Terranova is short April gold futures; Terranova is short May silver futures; Terranova is long VRTUS; Terranova is long NXPI; Terranova is long IBM; Terranova is long MCD; Terranova is long LQD; Terranova is long EMC; Terranova is long MSFT; Terranova is long GS; Terranova is long JOY; Terranova is long OXY; Najarian is long WYNN call spreads; Najarian is long KERX call spreads; Najarian is long FIO call spreads; Najarian is long P call spreads; Brown is long RAX; Brown is long CLNE; Gartman is long corn; Gartman is long an “Asian” short term government bond; Gartman is long Soybeans; Gartman is long Gold

Gartman is long Copper; Gartman is long S&P 500 Index; Gartman is short Euro; Gartman is short Swiss Franc; Gartman is short Yen;

For Michael Harris
Campbell and Company is short NYMEX Natural Gas, long NYMEX WTI Crude Oil and long ICE Brent Crude Oil.

For Itay Michaeli
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. This position reflects information available as of the prior business day.

Within the past 12 months, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has acted as manager or co-manager of an offering of securities of Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc, Delphi Automotive PLC.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services provided within the past 12 months from Borg Warner Inc, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc, Magna International Inc, Delphi Automotive PLC, Tower International, Inc..

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek, within the next three months, compensation for investment banking services from Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services from American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., Borg Warner Inc, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc, Lear Corporation, Magna International Inc, Delphi Automotive PLC, Meritor Inc, Tower International, Inc. in the past 12 months.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as investment banking client(s): Meritor Inc, Tower International, Inc., General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Delphi Automotive PLC, Borg Warner Inc, Johnson Controls Inc, Magna International Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., Borg Warner Inc, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc, Lear Corporation, Magna International Inc, Delphi Automotive PLC, Meritor Inc.

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, non-securities-related: American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., Borg Warner Inc, General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Johnson Controls Inc, Lear Corporation, Magna International Inc, Delphi Automotive PLC, Meritor Inc, Tower International, Inc..

Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from Meritor Inc, Tower International, Inc., General Motors Company, Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co, Delphi Automotive PLC.

Analysts' compensation is determined based upon activities and services intended to benefit the investor clients of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and its affiliates ("the Firm"). Like all Firm employees, analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability which includes investment banking revenues.

For Joel Simkins
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Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is an investment banking client of Credit Suisse.

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