This strategist believes the Japanese currency is headed for a fall.
Sure, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has taken his hand off the easy-money spigot. And yes, Japan logged a major current account deficit. Now, the other shoe is dropping, say the strategists at Barclays Capital.
"We believe downside risks for USD/JPY have been dramatically reduced, especially from the perspective of monetary policy in both Japan and the U.S.," they wrote in a note to clients.
Japan is contending with a fiscal deficit on top of the current account deficit, and G10 countries facing both challenges typically see their currencies underperform, Barclays says. Meanwhile, encouraging employment data "could even lead the markets to reassess the Fed's enhancement of policy guidance to keep fed funds rate unchanged until late 2014."
The strategists now expect dollar/yen to reach 90 in six months.
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