Weakness in the Chinese economy might signal a few investment opportunities, but beware of getting too bearish, the “Fast Money” pros said Thursday.
Tim Seymour of EmergingMoney.com said that China’s real estate sector was seeing an increase in loans, and that the government could move to lend a hand.
“They will doing be stealth easing of the property sector, meaning taking some of the pressure off the blow-ups,” he said.
In commodities, Seymour expected an upturn from Chinese.
“I think the lull in Chinese demand in the commodities space will have troughed in the first, possibly second, quarter,” he said.
Seymour also pointed to forecasts by General Electric, which could mean Chinese demand for energy will rise by 600 gigawatts over the next five years.
“The five-year plan envisages major, major spending still,” he said. “I think also the markets are looking at this globally as saying this is what’s holding back all of the cyclical names. That’s an opportunity to buy a lot of the cyclicals.”
Seymour said that what China was experiencing was “not a hard landing,” as JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat recently said.
On Seymour’s buy list: Freeport-McMoRan. He called it “best in the bunch,” trading at about six times 2013 earnings.
“You want to buy the miners, you want to buy the metals if you think China is not dead,” he said.
Since the beginning of 2011, the S&P 500 was up 11.4 percent, while the Shanghai Composite was down 15.5 percent.
“The hard-landing thing is really hard to swallow,” trader Keith McCullough said. “I don’t think you short Chinese equities.”
McCullough also saw opportunity.
“If the dollar starts to rally, what I would expect to see is a deflation of the inflation, so commodity stocks start to underperform. That’s why I’d actually be long China, because if you get that inflation out of the way, you get that stock market to go up for the first time in three years,” he said. “That’s a big deal because the Chinese stock market’s been down double-digits for two years.”
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Trader disclosure: On Mar 15, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Seymour is long BAC; Seymour’s firm is long FCX; Seymour’s firm is long GFI; Finerman is long AAPL; Finerman is long BAC; Finerman is long JPM; Finerman is long WMT; Finerman is long HPQ; Finerman is long KFF; Finerman is long PACD; Finerman’s firm is long AAPL and short calls; Finerman’s firm is long JPM; Finerman’s firm is long WMT; Finerman’s firm is long PACD; Adami is long C; Adami is long GS; Adami is long INTC; Adami is long AGU; Adami is long NUE; Adami is long BTU; McCullough is long XLU
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