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How to Trade on a Possible Currency War

Friday, 16 Mar 2012 | 7:09 PM ET
Digital Vision | Photodisc | Getty Images

Don't look now, but a currency war may be starting. Here's how to play it.

Did you notice Norway's interest rate cut? How about the talk of an overvalued currency in Australia? It's sure starting to sound like a currency war out there.

"You're starting to see the beginnings of it, particularly in Norway," says Brian Kelly of Shelter Harbor Capital. He told CNBC's Scott Wapner he is short the Australian and New Zealand dollars because he thinks a currency war is possible.

Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Institutional, has a trade on the prospect of a fight for lower interest rates that would drive currencies lower.

"My favorite 'debaser' is the Japanese yen," she says. "Japan used to have a very large current account surplus, and that's evaporated." Also, Japanese investors are starting to invest overseas again.

In J.P. Morgan's view, she says, "the yen right now is likely to hit 86 against the dollar in the coming months, maybe even higher."

So Patterson wants to buy the Canadian dollar against the yen. "I like Canada because it will benefit from an improving U.S. economy," she says. She wants to enter the trade at 84.00, setting a stop at 82.00 and a target at 88.00.

The Race to Devalue
Central banks around the world are rushing to devalue their currencies. Picking a winner in the global currency war, with CNBC's Scott Wapner and the Money In Motion traders.

You can watch the discussion on this video.

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MULTI CURRENCIES v The Dollar

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Currency Terms. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at moneyinmotion@cnbc.com.

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