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10% Warren Buffett Premium in Berkshire: Analyst

If you’re a serious investor, chances are you’ll have an ear perked toward Nebraska this week-end.

More than 40,000 people are heading to Omaha for Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meeting.

Of course investors will be looking to hear about the business performance and Buffett’s outlook on the economy – but this year, the number one question will undoubtedly have to do with Warren Buffett’s health.

Last month Buffettstunned the Street by announcing he intended to undergo treatment for prostate cancer in July. However, he was quick to add, his prognosis was very, very good.

Although Buffett is typically reluctant to reveal details about his personal life - Stifel Nicolaus analyst Meyer Shields thinks that won’t be an option this year.

“I think embedded in Berkshire is a Warren Bufftett premium of around 10%,” he says. Knowing about Warren Buffett’s health is crucial.

Shields has a hold rating on the stock.

Famed market timer Doug Kass told us something similar on April 17th. “Valuations must now be adjusted,” he said at the time. "The premium accorded in the marketplace for Buffett must be reduced because there is an unknown now."

Hedge fund manager Whitney Tilsonis on the other side of the trade entirely.

“We believe there’s a good chance that Buffett will be running the company for the next 5 years and maybe even the next 10 years and the cancer announcement doesn’t change that," he said on April 19th.

Tilson has a rough price target on Berkshire of $180,000 per Berkshire A-share and says, "we do not factor in one dollar of Warren Buffett premium. We simply take the investments per share and put a modest multiple on the operating earnings on the business."



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Trader disclosure: On May 3, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Terranova is long VRTS; Terranova is long MCD; Terranova is long JPM; Terranova is long UPL; Terranova is long CHKM; Terranova is long HPQ; Terranova is long LQD; Finerman’s firm is long AAPL; Finerman’s firm is long BAC; Finerman’s firm is long WMT; Finerman’s firm is long TGT; Finerman’s firm is long HPQ; Finerman’s firm is long PLCM; Finerman is short (AAPL) calls; Finerman is long BAC; Finerman is long RIMM calls; Finerman is long HPQ; Finerman is long PLCM; Finerman has (FSLR) puts; Nations is long SPY; Nations is long BAC; Nations is long C; Baker is long NFLX; Baker is long JPM; Baker is long APPL

For Anthony Scaramucci:
Scaramucci is long AAPL
Scaramucci is long C
Scaramucci is long GS
Scaramucci is long NFLX
Scaramucci is long IBM
Scaramucci is long WMT;
SkyBridge Capital Is A Fund Of Funds Manager
Anthony Scaramucci is one of 8 national finance chairs for Mitt Romney campaign
Scaramucci a fundraiser for Mitt Romney and has contributed to the Romney campaign

For Josh Feinman
No disclosures

For Meyer Shields
I, Meyer Shields, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Meyer Shields, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views contained in this research report.
Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Inc.'s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon (among other factors) Stifel Nicolaus' overall investment banking revenues.

For Gene Munster
Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Apple, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell Apple, Inc.

For James Altucher
No disclosures

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