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Your Away-From Europe Election Trade

Monday, 7 May 2012 | 3:58 PM ET
Koala in a tree.
Photo by: Michael Wifall
Koala in a tree.

The news from Europe is less than stellar, so this investor has a trading plan - in the South Pacific.

The euro got pounded after Francois Hollande won the French election and the leading Greek political parties failed to maintain their Parliamentary majority - but within a matter of hours, it regained all the lost ground.

Win Thin of Brown Brothers doesn't share the euro traders' apparent optimism.

"The euro's resilience has been a story for the last several months," he says, so he is looking elsewhere for a trade to express his concerns about global growth.

And really, where else but the Australian dollar?

Should You Still Be With AIG?
Shares of AIG have plunged over 10% since Stephen Weiss, Short Hills Capital, offered his bullish trade last week. Meanwhile Win Thin, Brown Brothers Harriman, offers his outlook on global currencies now.

"You can think of the Australian dollar as a proxy for global growth," Thin says, and it's even an indirect expression of the outlook for emerging markets, given Australia's close economic ties to China.

Thin is expecting more disappointing economic reports from China over the next few months, and with U.S. economic growth apparently slowing and Europe in a recession, Thin thinks selling the Australian dollar makes a lot of sense.

"It's been taking a beating lately, but I think there is still downside room to go," he says.

So Thin wants to sell the Aussie against the dollar, entering the trade at 1.0250 with a stop at 1.0350 and setting a target of 0.9860. "If we can get there, I think even further downside is possible," he says.

You can watch the discussion on the video, starting at 1:35.

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Terms Dictionary. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at moneyinmotion@cnbc.com.

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