No two ways about it, Greece is in a mess. Here's how to trade the crisis as it stands now.
If you think about it, a euro zone country that can't put together a new governing coalition, and has serious problems keeping up with its bond payments, ought to be seriously weighing on the value of the euro. And yes, the euro has had a bad week - but it could have been much worse, says Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management
"The only reason the euro's not even lower today is because everybody's got the position on," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee. In other words, with so many investors short the currency, there just isn't much selling pressure left. "Pretty much, there's unanimous consent around the world that Europe's situation is bad."
Still, Patterson thinks there is more weakness to come. "Right now, I think there is momentum to the downside for the euro," she says. In the coming week, Greece has that bond payment coming due, and an upcoming meeting of European finance ministers could be contentious. Patterson also expects new economic reports from the region to continue disappointing.
"I want to keep selling for now," she says. Patterson recommends selling the euro against the dollar around current levels, at 1.2940, with a stop at 1.3050 and a target of 1.2700.
"In the short term, at least, the trend is our friend. I know that's a cliche, but I think that's where we're going next week."
Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, thinks the trade makes sense - but he thinks the target could even be lower, around 1.2600.