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Odds Bernanke Hints at QE3: Slim to None

Wednesday, 6 Jun 2012 | 6:27 PM ET

After the disappointing jobs number and persistent worries about the euro crisis, chances are you’ll be listening closely to comments from Ben Bernanke, as he addresses the Joint Economic Committee in Congress on Thursday.

But if you’re hoping to hear any hints that QE3 is in the cards, Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at BTIG, says you’re going to be disappointed.

“We don’t think there will be any hints of QE3 tomorrow or even at the FOMC meeting later in the month,” Greenhaus tells us.

He says, Bernanke can’t hint at anything because chances are he doesn’t know himself.

Fed Chief Bernanke Takes the Stand Tomorrow
Dan Greenhaus, BTIG, weighs in on what to expect from Fed Chairman Bernanke tomorrow. "This is not the environment that [Bernanke] will announce new policy," says Greenhaus.

Greenhaus reminds that hiring in spring was worse than expected but the winter was better than expected. Essentially the warm winter probably pulled hiring forward. "On balance they're going to have to wait a little longer," says Greenhaus, before making any decisions.

“I tell clients, who are constructing portfolio or trading, don’t bank on QE3 happening in any imminent fashion,” Greenhaus adds.

What would put QE3 on the table?

Greenhaus tells us another lousy jobs report. “If we get one more payroll number between 75,000 and 125,000 – then people will start screaming at the Fed. We had three months in a row of lackluster job growth. Unemployment may not be fully in the Fed's control but (in the event of a 4th weak jobs number) they will likely try and influence that."

However, short of another very weak jobs number, QE3 remains anyone’s guess.

Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie






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Trader disclosure: On June 6, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Brian Kelly is long QQQ Calls; Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long FPM; Karen Finerman is long WMT; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long RIMM; Karen Finerman is short SPY; Karen Finerman is short IWM; Karen Finerman is short MDY; Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long AGU; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU; Mike Murphy is long JPM; Mike Murphy is long TGT; Mike Murphy is long X; Mike Murphy is long HAL

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