If you’re looking for oil to sit at current levels, one of the most esteemed oil traders in the world thinks you’re about to be sorely disappointed.
According to Mark Fisher of MBF, oil doesn’t belong at $83 and won’t remain at this level for long. “Either it goes back to $100 or it drops to $65 – but we’re not staying here,” he says.
“I think ultimately we’re going up,” Fisher adds, "that’s my gut, but when I get a gut feeling I’m either really right or really wrong.”
Fisher’s gut feelings as well as his commentary is widely followed by pro traders because he’s built one of the largest and most successful clearing firms and proprietary trading shops on the Street.
And of all the catalysts driving oil, Fisher also tells us his guys says, it’s not the stronger dollar or the China slowdown behind the move. Instead, he believes the decline in oil is largely being orchestrated by Saudi Arabia.
“They’re trying to put the screws to Iran,” he says. (It's believed that Iran is suffering due to falling oil revenues.) And Saudi Arabia's oil minister seemed to imply in the near-term his nation has no plans to decrease production; he said Saudi Arabia is committed to keeping markets 'amply supplied.'
Fisher adds, "I don't think all this is a big coincidence."
But Fisher also thinks as tougher sanctions against Iran are implemented later in the month, Saudi Arabia will allow oil to return to $100 - a level they've said in the past was fair.
If you're looking for a tell, Fisher thinks one is coming as soon as Thursday a tell at the conclusion of the OPEC meeting.
“Historically, the first move oil makes out of the OPEC is the wrong move” Whatever the knee-jerk reaction is fade the move, Fisher says, the bigger move will be in the other direction.
What else you can learn from Wall Street Whales such as Mark Fisher and the way he thinks about money and investing? Click here to go to Simple Strategies Behind Supersized Successes.
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Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On June 12, 2012 , the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Joe Terranova is long MCD; Joe Terranova is long PNC; Joe Terranova is long USB; Joe Terranova is long TCBI; Joe Terranova is long SBUX; Joe Terranova is long WMB; Joe Terranova is long SJM; Joe Terranova is long UPL; Joe Terranova is long WFM; Joe Terranova is long SNDK; Joe Terranova is long IBM; Joe Terranova is long HYG; Joe Terranova is long AAPL; Joe Terranova is long EMC; Joe Terranova is long NXPI; Joe Terranova is long LPX; Joe Terranova is long CNX; Jon Najarian is long SPPI
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