Can the S&P jump to 1419 in the next 75 days?
That’s the closing high for the year hit back on April 2nd and according to S&P Capital IQ, there’s a strong argument to be made that’s where the market goes next.
They’ve looked at stock market pullbacks since 1946, crunched the numbers and now say the following:
“If this summer swoon is truly over, the S&P 500 will have recorded its 55th pullback (a decline less than 10%) since WWII, missing "correction" status by a mere six basis points.”
In addition, they say, “should the recovery time from this pullback be similar to prior recoveries, and there's no guarantee it will, the S&P 500 could surpass its 1419 April 2 closing high in 77 calendar days..”
On CNBC’sFast Money Halftime Report, the team of traders assembled for the TV show, agree that a sharp rally, like the one forecast by S&P Capital IQ is entirely in the cards.
“Watch 1325,” says Mike Murphy, founder and managing partner at Rosecliff Capital. “The market has failed at that level several times. But if we can break above, there’s every reason to believe the S&P trades up to at least 1400.”
And Murphy sees a fundamental catalyst on the horizon - he thinks the Fed is getting ready to make another move. "We've seen so much deterioration out there, I just think the Fed will have to do something. And I think the announcement comes at the conclusion of the next FOMC meeting on June 20th."
From the floor of the NYSE, trader Steve Grasso, Director of Institutional Sales Trading at Stuart Frankel, says, “Investors need to be prepared. Moves in this market tend to be huge and quick.”
Trader Stephanie Link, director of research at TheStreet, says if you subscribe to the thesis, the way to trade is long cyclicals. “Go into names that have really been beaten down – industrials, energy and materials .”
What do you think? We want to know!
* You can find our conversation on this topic about 8:30 into the video clip above.
Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On June 14, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Michael Murphy is long FB; Michael Murphy is long PHM; Michael Murphy is long TGT; Michael Murphy is short WMT; Baker Ave. is long CF; Baker Ave. is long CVX; Baker Ave. is long MCD; Baker Ave. is long MSFT; Stephanie Link is long AAPL; Stephanie Link is long JPM; Stephanie Link is long MCD; Stephanie Link is long EMC; Stephanie Link is long DVN; Steve Grasso is long ASTM; Steve Grasso is long BA; Steve Grasso is long D; Steve Grasso is long FRO; Steve Grasso is long LNG; Steve Grasso is long MHY; Steve Grasso is long MO; Steve Grasso is long PFE; Steve Grasso is long S; Steve Grasso is long VLP; Steve Grasso is long XLU
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