It seems nothing matters more to the market right now, than the outcome of the elections in Greece over the week-end.
On CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Report, the show’s regular traders examined the possible outcomes and in the short-term, it appears the election is a win-win for bulls.
Outcome 1. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras wins and conservatives take control of parliament.
Largely, the Fast Money team as well as other pundits believe this is the most likely outcome. Investors would take results as a sign that Greece remains committed to the EU.
“In this scenario the S&P should pop,” says pro trader Steve Grasso, Director of Institutional Sales Trading at Stuart Frankel.
“In fact, the question isn’t will the market pop, it's how much will it pop - and do you sell the pop?”
If you follow technicals, Grasso says the ‘tell’ will be whether the market can stay above 1335. “If it holds 1335, then technically the S&P should have another 2-5% move higher.”
Trader Stephen Weiss, managing director of Short Hills Capital agrees that this is the most likely outcome – but does not think 1335 holds.
“If the market does pop, fade the rally.” He believes the advance can not be sustained.
Outcome 2. Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras wins and the left takes control of parliament.
As negative as this scenario sounds, the pros think the most likely reaction from the stock market is a rally.
Even though it would signal that the people of Greece are fed up with austerity, it would be interpreted as a sign that intervention was all the more likely.
“The worse things get, the market seems to think the greater the odds that the EU or the IMF or the US steps in. If anything your bias has to be to the upside,” explains trader Brian Kelly, founder of Shelter Harbor Capital.
In either scenario, Fast trader and OptionMonster Jon Najarian says he expects markets to climb, and adds not to be confused by the Vix which will probably go up too. “Why? Because pros will purchase protection more afraid to miss the upside than to sell,” he says.
Outcome 3: No matter who wins, neither the conservatives nor the left can form a government.
This outcome is viewed as unlikely but the pros say should it come to pass, it would be bearish. The market hates uncertainty and this would be more uncertainty. As a result, stocks would probably sell-off.
What do you think? We want to know!
Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On June 15, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Pete Najarian is long AAPL; Pete Najarian is long BP; Pete Najarian is long C; Pete Najarian is long NOK; Pete Najarian is long MSFT; Pete Najarian is long HPQ; Pete Najarian is long PEP; Pete Najarian is long SBUX; Pete Najarian is long INTC; Pete Najarian is long WLT; Pete Najarian is long SCCO; Pete Najarian is long CE; Pete Najarian is long PFE; Pete Najarian is long MRK; Pete Najarian is long BP CALLS; Pete Najarian is long AAPL CALLS; Pete Najarian is long CIEN CALLS; Pete Najarian is long CS CALLS; Pete Najarian is long JPM CALLS; Pete Najarian is long KEY CALLS; Pete Najarian is long XCO CALLS; Pete Najarian is long THC CALLS; Pete Najarian is long OIH CALLS; Pete Najarian is long SPY CALLS; Pete Najarian is long DLTR CALLS; Brian Kelly is long QQQ Calls; Brian Kelly is long QQQ Puts
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