In Romney and Obama Speeches, Selective Truths
To listen to Mitt Romney tell it, President Obama is a job-killing, free-spending, big-government liberal who made the recession worse with his policies and endangered free-market capitalism. The president has spent tax dollars “at a pace without precedent in recent history,” Mr. Romney says, and “added almost as much debt as all the prior presidents combined.”
As Mr. Obama travels the country, he offers the opposite self-portrait, that of a job-creating, tightfisted, government-shrinking pragmatist who saved the country from another Great Depression. On his watch, “government employment has gone down,” he says, and federal spending has increased “at the lowest pace in nearly 60 years.”
With the presidential race largely focused on the economy and the budget, Mr. Obamaand Mr. Romneyare filling speeches with facts and figures designed to enhance their case and diminish the other guy’s, in the process often making assertions fundamentally at odds with one another. Along the way, both candidates are at times stretching the truth, using statistics without context, exaggerating their own records and misrepresenting their opponent’s.
Each side regularly accuses the other of lying, and in any campaign there is a temptation to write both sides off, as if every misleading statement were equivalent. In reality, some are more fundamental than others, more egregious, more central to the larger argument. Mr. Romney, for example, called his 2010 book laying out the rationale for his candidacy “No Apology” — charging, falsely in the eyes of many independent fact-checkers, that Mr. Obama had traveled the world apologizing for America.
But determining who is the worse dissembler can be a subjective exercise, even in an age when news organizations, blogs and partisan groups blitz out regular fact-checks. When PolitiFact, the Pulitzer-winning project of The Tampa Bay Times, evaluated the statements, it found that more of Mr. Romney’s were misleading than Mr. Obama’s. Glenn Kessler, who writes the Fact Checker column at The Washington Post, on the other hand, has awarded roughly the same average “Pinocchio scores” — his measure of falsity — to both men.
Sometimes the truth or dishonesty of an assertion depends on definitions or on when you start counting. When it comes to unemployment, for instance, Mr. Romney counts from the month when Mr. Obama took office and inherited an economy that was hemorrhaging jobs at historic rates. Mr. Obama prefers to count from 2010, when his policies arguably had started to take effect and the job picture had begun turning around, eschewing blame for the losses at the start of his term.
But one thing is clear: While they claim distance from typical Washington politics, both men have mastered the ancient Washington art of selective storytelling.
“Over 4 million jobs created in the last two years.” — Mr. Obama
“He has not created jobs.” — Mr. Romney
Nowhere is the veracity of the candidates’ statements more central than on the economic issues at the heart of their contest. The question of job creation provides a quintessential case study. By counting from January 2009, Mr. Romney paints the bleak portrait of a country that despite a modest recovery still has fewer jobs than it did when Mr. Obama took office. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the country has 552,000 fewer jobs now than when the president was inaugurated.
Mr. Obama starts his count in March 2010, after the money from his stimulus law was flowing and payrolls began growing again. And he generally cites private-sector employment, so that he can say 4.3 million jobs have been created. Counting government work forces, the job growth is actually lower, 3.8 million jobs, according to the bureau.
Is it reasonable to start counting in January 2009? The economy was already shedding hundreds of thousands of jobs a month, and none of Mr. Obama’s policies would take effect for some time. Starting the count just one month later would show a small net increase in jobs for the president’s tenure in office. Yet if he cannot be blamed for job losses in the early months of his term, can Mr. Obama be held responsible for not replacing the lost jobs more quickly?
Mr. Obama has “added almost as much debt as all the prior presidents combined.” — Mr. Romney
The total national debt now stands at $15.8 trillion, up from $10.6 trillion when Mr. Obama took office, an increase of nearly 50 percent. A commonly cited and more economically important subset, debt held by the public, has grown to $11 trillion from $6.3 trillion, a 75 percent increase — closer to Mr. Romney’s claim, but still $1.7 trillion short of matching the accumulated public debt of the first 43 presidents. Adjusted for inflation, the debt Mr. Obama incurred is smaller relative to the combined prior debt.
“Since President Obama assumed office...federal spendinghas accelerated at a pace without precedent in recent history.” — Mr. Romney
“Since I’ve been president, federal spending has risen at the lowest pace in nearly 60 years.” — Mr. Obama
Both men may be exaggerating in their own ways — and once again it depends in part on when you start counting. The president based his claim on a column in Market Watch, which calculated that government spending during the Obama years has grown 1.4 percent annually, the lowest since President Dwight D. Eisenhower.
But that column started counting with the fiscal year that started on October 1, 2009, more than eight months after Mr. Obama took office, on the theory that that was the first full fiscal year Mr. Obama could shape. It held Mr. Obama responsible for $140 billion in additional spending from those first eight months stemming largely from his stimulus spending program. The calculation also gave Mr. Obama credit for automatic spending cuts scheduled for the next fiscal year, which the president opposes and which may not actually take effect.
Using different ways to calculate spending, The Washington Post found that spending has been going up 5.2 percent a year under Mr. Obama, while The Associated Press put the figure at 3 percent, excluding 2009. Either way, it is neither the “lowest pace in nearly 60 years,” as Mr. Obama claimed, nor “at a pace without precedent in recent history,” as Mr. Romney charged.
Going back to Eisenhower, federal spending has risen on average 7 percent a year, or 2.6 percent when adjusted for inflation. After the spending burst of 2009, Mr. Obama, constrained by Congress and aided by repayments of bank and auto bailouts, increased spending just 0.5 percent a year over the next three fiscal years when adjusted for inflation; only two other three-year periods since Eisenhower had lower spending growth.
Another way to judge spending is to look at what was anticipated based on the laws and policies at the time Mr. Obama took office versus what actually happened. In January 2009, days before he was inaugurated, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecast spending in the 2011 fiscal year, which ended last September 30, at $3.323 trillion. In reality, after the policies put in place by Mr. Obama and Congress, it turned out to be $3.603 trillion, 8.4 percent higher.
Yet another way to look at spending is as a share of the overall economy. For years up to and through most of George W. Bush’s presidency, federal spending generally totaled about 20 percent or less of the nation’s overall economic output. In Mr. Bush’s final full fiscal year in office, ending September 30, 2008, it rose to 20.8 percent.
The next fiscal year, in which Mr. Bush was president for four months and Mr. Obama for eight, it shot up to 25.2 percent, then dipped to 24.1 percent for each of the next two years, the highest levels since World War II. Of course one reason spending is a larger share of the economy is because the overall economy shrunk during the recession. But even if spending rose starkly during the economic crisis under the presidencies of both Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama, it has remained at the higher level since then under Mr. Obama.
Size of Government
“The only time government employment has gone down during a recession has been under me.” — Mr. Obama
Again, it depends on how it is counted. Looking at the five months from Mr. Obama’s inauguration to June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and including state and local governments, which are not under his direct control, government employment at all levels was virtually unchanged, from 22,576,000 in January 2009 to 22,570,000 in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Total government employment was 21,969,000 in May 2012, a reduction of about 600,000 jobs. But looking only at the federal work force under Mr. Obama’s direct control, then government employment has actually gone up. He inherited a federal work force of 2,061,700, and it rose slightly through June 2009 to 2,109,700; by May of this year, it had grown further to 2,204,100, a 7 percent increase.
Mr. Obama is not correct in saying this was the “only time” government shrank during a recession. During the recession from July 1981 through November 1982, under President Ronald Reagan, and again during the recession from July 1990 through March 1991, under the elder President George Bush, government employment shrank slightly, both over all and in the federal work force specifically. The White House said he meant the recession and the 35 months after it.
Either way, while Mr. Obama has boasted of shrinking the public work force, he has advocated policies to prevent it from shrinking by helping state and local governments avoid laying off employees. In recent days, he has lamented that continuing economic troubles result in part from a decreasing public work force.
“We are only inches away from no longer being a free economy.” — Mr. Romney