Oil’s Sharp Decline Sign of Gathering Storm
Oil prices tumbled on Wednesday to their lowest levels in a year and a half, with declines extending into the close, even as the S&P moderated and pared losses.
And trader Josh Brown believes the action is the equivalent of the oil market jumping up and down trying to get your attention.
He sees the weakness as a leading indicator - one that says global growth is facing serious challenges.
And those challenges are probably due to two factors.
1. “We’ve got a fiscal cliff coming,” says Brown. That is companies will be immobilized by the tax increases and spending cuts that are all scheduled to take effect at the very beginning of 2013. Although it’s widely believed lawmakers won’t allow the economy to go off the ‘fiscal cliff’ the Street has no expectations of a resolution until after the November election, at the earliest. Therefore the belief is companies will be reluctant to either spend or create jobs anytime soon.
2. “Nasty stuff in Europe still lies ahead,” Brown adds. Largely the Street believes the financial woes of Spain and Italy will flare before the summer ends. Trader Jon Najarian of OptionMonster says if the the Europe crisis were a football game we’d be at the end of the second quarter. In other words, a lot of crisis to come.
All told, Brown, Guy Adami and other pros believe headwinds could become quite severe and warn investors to prepare, now.
"The world gets scarier by the day to me," says Adami, managing director of stockMONSTER.com. "The energy market is telling me that growth is slowing globally."
“Our tactical accounts are 100% in cash,” adds Brown. He wants nothing to do with stocks. But before you go into hibernation, it’s worth noting that not all the Fast Money traders are negative. Trader Brian Kelly is quite bullish.
Kelly, founder of Shelter Harbor Capital, thinks the decline in oil has everything to do with animosity in the Middle East. "The Saudi's have no problem with lower oil prices because they squeeze Iran."
He says forget oil; “as long as Fed and central banks around the world are poised to intervene, I’m a buyer of stocks especially cyclicals which tend to outperform in this kind of environment.”
What do you think? We want to know!
Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie
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Trader disclosure: On June 20, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long JPM; Karen Finerman is long WMT; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long MSFT; Karen Finerman is long M; Karen Finerman is short SPY; Karen Finerman is short IWM; Karen Finerman is short MDY; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long INTC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX; Brian Kelly is long AAPL; Brian Kelly is long BAC; Brian Kelly is long PNC; Brian Kelly is long JPM; Brian Kelly is long WFC; Brian Kelly is long DD; Brian Kelly is long DOW; Brian Kelly is long MMM; Brian Kelly is long GNRC; Guy Adami is long C; Guy Adami is long GS; Guy Adami is long INTC; Guy Adami is long AGU; Guy Adami is long MSFT; Guy Adami is long NUE; Guy Adami is long BTU
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