GO
Loading...

Your Currency Trade on the Jobs Report

Monday, 2 Jul 2012 | 9:12 AM ET
Jetta Productions | Blend Images | Getty Images

Ready for another employment report? This strategist has a trading plan.

It's been a while since the U.S. employment numbers were anything to cheer at, but Michelle Meyer, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch , thinks the latest report on nonfarm payrolls, due this Friday, could bring a shift.

"This is going to be a fairly clean read of the labor market, and that is why we actually think the jobs numbers could look a little bit better," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee. Meyer expects a 100,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls - "a slow trend, but not a collapse."

Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, agrees that the payroll data could be encouraging, so for a trading playbook, she is looking at pairing the dollar against a risk-sensitive currency like the New Zealand dollar. page90nzd=xfalsetrue2pricetruefalsefalsefalse0QuotefalsetrueChartfalsetrueNewsfalsetrueProfilefalsetrueAdd to Watchlistfalsetruetruehttp://api-cdn.cnbc.com/api/chart/chart.aspGE4true3

If the employment report comes in around consensus forecasts or slightly higher, Bourdeau recommends buying the kiwi and selling the dollar, and if it's lower, she recommends the opposite position.

This week, Bourdeau says, "I'm looking for a decent number because I think we're due for one." And payroll data aside, she says, "I think risk seeking could have some legs" because several central banks are meeting and she thinks it's possible that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England could cut interest rates.

So Bourdeau wants to buy the New Zealand dollar against the dollar, entering the trade at 0.7950 with a target of 0.8200 and a stop at 0.7840.

Another Jobs Shocker?
Is there another jobs shocker coming next week? How to play next week's unemployment report, with CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Money In Motion traders. With Michelle Meyer, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

Rich Ross of Auerbach Grayson likes the trade. "This is one of the quintessential proxies for risk," he says, and on a technical basis, patterns suggest investors are seeking risk.

Rebecca Patterson, chief markets strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Institutional, that the New Zealand dollar is relatively illiquid. So she likes the strategy, but cautions, "watch all the moving parts" as other economic indicators come in.

href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838066/" linktype="External" resizable="true" status="true" scrollbars="true" fullscreen="false" location="true" menubars="true" titlebar="true" toolbar="true" omnitrack="false" hidetimestampicon="false" hidecontenticon="false" contenticononly="false">

href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15838066/" linktype="External" resizable="true" status="true" scrollbars="true" fullscreen="false" location="true" menubars="true" titlebar="true" toolbar="true" omnitrack="false" hidetimestampicon="false" hidecontenticon="false" contenticononly="false">

Tune In: CNBC's "Money in Motion Currency Trading" airs on Fridays at 5:30pm and repeats on Saturdays at 7pm.

Learn more: The essential vocabulary for currency trading is on Key Terms Dictionary. Top currency strategies are broken down for you in Currency Class.

Talk back: Tell us what you want to hear about - email us at moneyinmotion@cnbc.com.

  Price   Change %Change
USD INDEX
---
BAC
---
JPM MLP ETN
---

Featured