Kaul’s forecast for the S&P 500 index is $104 per share, which is down from $110 expectation that he had at the beginning of this year.
On the bright side, Kaul thinks earnings can lift the stock market if reports come in better-than-expected. What’s more, analysts forecasts have come down “so much” in the past year, he said, that it’s likely more companies will beat market expectations.
If you’re still set on “bellwether” watching this week, though, Kaul thinks JPMorganChase is a better bet.
“From a psychological perspective, I think it’s more relevant. People are going to look at their loan-loss provisions and the quality of their earnings as a sign on financials,” he said.
JPMorgan is set to report earnings before the opening bell on Friday, July 13.
—By CNBC’s Jennifer Leigh Parker
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No disclosure information was available for Ashwani Kaul.
Follow Jennifer Leigh Parker on Twitter @jparker741 .