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Upside Momentum in Green Mountain Deceiving

If you’re like our pro traders, chances are you’ve spotted the price action in Green Mountain. Since June 22nd the stock has gained more than 20%.

Considering the stock was once a high flier, pros have started to wonder whether Green Mountain has gotten its mojo back.

Has it?

Top Piper Jaffray analyst Nicole Miller Regan doesn’t think so.

In a live interview on CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime report, she suggests the move could actually be deceiving. “There was no positive catalyst behind the recent run. It's still going to be a bumpy ride.”

Regan's commentary suggests the gains might not be sustainable. "The risks (remain) channel shift and the CEO has announced his intention to retire so there's execution risk."

It’s worth noting that she thinks if you’re nimble, Regan thinks there’s probably a little more upside because the stock has been “massively shorted” but if you’re a fundamental investor, she suggests looking elsewhere.

The better trade is long Starbucks . “They benefit from the same things but present a far smaller risk profile,” she says.

* You can find our conversation with Nicole Miller Regan about 3:30 into this video clip.

DON'T MISS: Seeking Return: Fast Money's Top Div Yielders


Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie

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Trader disclosure: On July 9, 2012, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Joe Terranova is long VRTS; Joe Terranova is long MCD; Joe Terranova is long PNC; Joe Terranova is long USB; Joe Terranova is long TCBI; Joe Terranova is long SBUX; Joe Terranova is long MNST; Joe Terranova is long NKE; Joe Terranova is long UPL; Joe Terranova is long NXPI; Joe Terranova is long LPX; Joe Terranova is long WFM; Joe Terranova is long APPL; Joe Terranova is long EMC; Stephanie Link is long JPM; Stephanie Link is long DD; Simon Baker is funds long ABT; Simon Baker is funds long GE; Simon Baker is funds long HD; Simon Baker is funds long MSFT; Simon Baker is funds long NKE; Simon Baker is funds long PEP; Simon Baker is funds long CRM; Simon Baker is funds long SLB; Simon Baker is funds long XHB; Simon Baker is funds long STI; Simon Baker is funds long V; Simon Baker is funds long DIS; Simon Baker is funds long WFC

For Adam Parker
Morgan Stanley is not acting as a municipal advisor and the opinions or views contained herein are not intended to be, and do not constitute, advice within the meaning of Section 975 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

For Nicole Miller Regan
The following companies have been investment banking clients of Piper Jaffray during the past 12 months: BBRG
The following companies have been investment banking clients of Piper Jaffray during the past 12 months: GMCR
The following companies have been investment banking clients of Piper Jaffray during the past 12 months: IRG
Piper Jaffray expects to have the following companies as investment banking clients within the next three months: BAGL
Piper Jaffray expects to have the following companies as investment banking clients within the next three months: IRG
Piper Jaffray received non-investment banking securities-related compensation from the following companies during the past 12 months: SONC

For Brian Yu
A director of Citi serves on the board of AA
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or its affiliates beneficially owns 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of AA
The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of AA
The Firm is a market maker in the publicly traded equity securities of BTU
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from ANR
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from AA
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from ACI
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. or an affiliate received compensation in the past 12 months from PCX

For Ken Usdin
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.

For Jeff Kilburg
Nothing to disclose


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