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Cummins Warning Bigger Problem Than You Realize: Pros

Tuesday, 10 Jul 2012 | 6:05 PM ET

On Tuesday the Fast pros spend a great deal of time parsing through a warning issued by Cummins.

They say there's more than meets the eye here, and none of it is good.

Cummins, an engine maker, cut its full-year sales forecast on Tuesday, citing weaker U.S. orders and softer demand in emerging markets.

Of course, that alone is bad; it suggests a global slowdown has claimed another victim.

However, the Fast Money traders are focussed on something else in the warning - something they say is far more problematic – especially ahead of earnings season.

The company cited the stronger dollar as a negative catalyst and a cause of weakness. (If that sounds counter-intuitive, a stronger dollar is bearish because as a company repatriates profits from overseas, it must convert the money from another currency.)

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“This is bad,” says pro trader Karen Finerman, president of Metropolitan Capital. As earnings season kicks into gear, she thinks many other companies may be facing a similar headwind.

The big concern is that the dollar probably won't get weaker anytime soon. Gains are largely due to the financial woes of Europe and the overseas situation is expected to get worse before it ever gets better.

Weak Demand Hits Chip Outlook
Cummins plunged 9 percent today on news the company lowered its Q2 and full-year guidance today, with the FMHR traders; and Applied Micro Devices & Applied Materials both slashed their estimates yesterday, with Chris Danely, JPMorgan analyst.

“This fx issue is a big thing,” adds trader Tim Seymour, founder of EmergingMoney.com.

“It’s troubling,” admits trader Stephen Weiss, managing partner at Short Hills Capital and author of “The Big Win”.

All the traders say these developments have made them even more cautious. Right now they suggest playing the market very conservatively. “Let the market digest this. I certainly wouldn’t add right here,” says Finerman.

If you’re among those bargain hunters that are wondering whether Cummins or another stock is now too cheap to pass up, Weiss says think about the environment like this.

"At current levels a stock like Cummins is cheap, if you think current estimates stand." But the question is -- will current estimates stand?

Weiss doesn't think so. He doesn't see Europe resolving its crisis - that sends the dollar even higher and as a result Cummins and other companies may have to revise estimates even lower -- again – later in the year?

If that’s the case, it’s entirely possible that no multinational is cheap.


Posted by CNBC's Lee Brodie

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Trader disclosure: On July 10, 2012 , the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Tim Seymour is long BAC; Tim Seymour is long SBUX; Tim Seymour is long FCX; Karen Finerman is long AAPL; Karen Finerman is long BAC; Karen Finerman is long JPM; Karen Finerman is long WMT; Karen Finerman is long TGT; Karen Finerman is long GOOG; Karen Finerman is long M; Karen Finerman is long CMI; Karen Finerman is short SPY; Karen Finerman is short IWM; Karen Finerman is short MDY; Dan Nathan is long JULY 7 Puts; Dan Nathan is long OCT 10/5 PUT SPRAED; Dan Nathan is long XLF JULY 14 PUTS; Dan Nathan is long INTC JULY 26/25 PUT SPREAD; Dan Nathan is long WMT JULY 67.5 PUT SPREAD; Dan Nathan is long SBUXAUG 50/45 PUT SPREAD; Dan Nathan is long HOG JULY 44/40 PUT SPREAD; Dan Nathan is long HOG AUG 45/40 PUT SREAD; Dan Nathan is long SDS; Dan Nathan is long QQQ AUG 68/60 PUT SREAD; Stephen Weiss is long VZ; Stephen Weiss is short JCP; Stephen Weiss is short PCAR

For Jeff Kauffman
Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. makes a market in the following subject company LUV
Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.'s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors, including Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.'s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
Sterne Agee & Leach, Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company and/or companies in the next three months: LUV

For David Bailin
Nothing to disclose

For Dan Ernst
Nothing to disclose

For Chris Danely
Nothing to Disclose



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