Your Fed-Speak Trading Plan

Friday, 13 Jul 2012 | 8:22 PM ET
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill June 7, 2012 in Washington, DC.
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Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill June 7, 2012 in Washington, DC.

Here's how to set yourself up for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's upcoming Congressional testimony.

Ready for Federal Reserve ChairmanBen Bernanke's Congressional testimony? Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank, has a playbook.

Bourdeau notes that Bernanke has said he is ready to take action as warranted, but so far he has been vague about what that means.

If Bernanke does not signal that stimulus action is imminent, Bourdeau expects risk-sensitive assets to sell off, and she recommends selling the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar. But if he indicates that a move is possible, or perhaps discusses the benefits of further easing, "you'd want to buy the Aussie dollar."

For now, Bourdeau is putting her chips on the first scenario. "I do ultimately think we're going to be disappointed by Bernanke next week. I think he's going to bide his time", she told CNBC's Melissa Lee. Bourdeau expects the chairman to wait for more reports on employment and, perhaps, a Greek bond redemption before deciding on a course of action, she says.

So Bourdeau wants to sell the Aussie against the dollar. She recommends entering the trade at 1.0250 with a target of 1.0100 and a stop loss at 1.0330.

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Boris Schlossberg of BK Forex agrees that stimulus is not in the offing, but he disagrees with Bourdeau on the reasons.

"The key question is not economics, its politics," he says. "If Bernanke were to ease right now, Republicans would go apoplectic." Schlossberg believes that barring cataclysmic economic reports, easing is off the table before the election.

But CNBC contributor Rebecca Patterson argues otherwise. "I think that the Fed right now is saying we're going to do whatever we need to do for the economy," she says, though she does think an easing move would generate considerable political heat.

You can watch the discussion on the video clip.



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