Your Currency Trade on the Jobs Report
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Another employment report is coming at the end of the week, and this strategist has a trading plan.
Ready for more news on the U.S. economy?
The latest nonfarm payroll report is due at the end of the week, and Rebecca Patterson, chief investment officer at Bessemer Trust, has a plan to trade it - no matter what the news is.
"This is my thinking: if we get a stronger than consensus payroll number," like a figure above 100,000, then "people will get a little more hopeful on growth," she told CNBC's Melissa Lee.
"If we get a bad payroll number, that's not good for growth - but we already know growth is struggling, and it kind of seals the deal for Fed action in September." If investors are anticipating some stimulus from the Fed, Patterson says they probably will go hunting for yield - just as they would if the news is good.
That's why Patterson expects the Mexican peso to benefit no matter what the payroll report brings. It's highly levered to the U.S. economy, she points out. Also, "Mexico offers you a yield of 4.5 percent just on the short end, which is a heck of a lot nicer than what you get in Treasury bonds today."
Patterson is hoping for a pullback in the peso to around 13.45 against the dollar, at which point she would buy the Mexican currency and set a stop at 13.60 and a target of 13.10.
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