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How to Trade the Euro Now

Euro coin in front of the giant symbol of the Euro outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank.
Thomas Lohnes | AFP | Getty Images
Euro coin in front of the giant symbol of the Euro outside the headquarters of the European Central Bank.

Well, that was underwhelming. After promising a week ago to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi today produced ... nothing.

The euro had moved up in anticipation of some action, but then quickly gave back ground. So what do you do with it now?

The European Central Bank's non-action is giving this strategist a trading plan.

"I still want to sell into rallies," says Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman. The Europeans "are moving, but they're moving at the speed of molasses in winter," he told me.

Chandler notes that in Spain, officials have been reluctant to ask for bailout fund aid for their bond market. Giving up any sovereignty is difficult, he says, nonetheless, "Draghi showed a greater sense of urgency than Spain itself."

Draghi is still "getting his ducks in order," Chandler told me, but he does think the Federal Reserve is now more likely to inject some kind of stimulus when it meets next. He wants to sell the euro on rallies to the 1.2250 or 1.2300 level, looking for a move down to 1.1900 before the end of the quarter.

At the end of the day, a weaker euro may be what Europe needs for now, since it is giving the peripheral countries some economic stimulus, Chandler says. "The weaker euro is both a sign of a sickness as well as part of the cure."

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